Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
Cincinnati Reds
at Pittsburgh Pirates
4:05 PM ET · 1:05 PM PTPNC Park, Pittsburghopen roof
The Headline
Elly De La Cruz enters this game with a 15.3% model-estimated probability of homering at PNC Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor93
RHB HR factor97
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Rhett Lowder
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA3.18
WHIP1.18
IP34.0
HR/90.30
K/96.6
xwOBA0.319
Barrel%7.6%
Hard-hit%37.1%
Home Starter · RHP
Carmen Mlodzinski
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA4.13
WHIP1.45
IP28.1
HR/90.00
K/99.5
xwOBA0.319
Barrel%6.0%
Hard-hit%55.4%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz
SHB·10 HR / 142 PA·Brl 16.7%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 4 K · 6 PA
15.3%
H 65·K 62
Sal Stewart
RHB·9 HR / 138 PA·Brl 20.7%
14.7%
H 60·K 52
Nathaniel Lowe
LHB·5 HR / 62 PA·Brl 13.6%
14.4%
H 67·K 51
Spencer Steer
RHB·5 HR / 113 PA·Brl 15.7%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
12.6%
H 64·K 55
JJ Bleday
LHB·1 HR / 12 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
11.5%
H 64·K 56
Will Benson
LHB·1 HR / 50 PA·Brl 10.7%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
10.8%
H 62·K 56
Eugenio Suárez
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.8%
H 64·K 56
Dane Myers
RHB·1 HR / 52 PA·Brl 12.1%
10.7%
H 65·K 53
Matt McLain
RHB·2 HR / 138 PA·Brl 8.8%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.0%
H 57·K 63
Tyler Stephenson
RHB·2 HR / 89 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
9.7%
H 62·K 61
Ke'Bryan Hayes
RHB·1 HR / 86 PA·Brl 12.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.7%
H 63·K 54
Jose Trevino
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.6%
H 58·K 56
Home Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
vs Rhett Lowder
Oneil Cruz
LHB·9 HR / 142 PA·Brl 22.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
14.5%
H 60·K 60
Brandon Lowe
LHB·8 HR / 126 PA·Brl 12.8%
13.2%
H 63·K 54
Marcell Ozuna
RHB·3 HR / 112 PA·Brl 8.6%
11.8%
H 58·K 58
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB·5 HR / 132 PA·Brl 8.0%
11.2%
H 64·K 50
Konnor Griffin
RHB·2 HR / 105 PA·Brl 9.7%
11.0%
H 63·K 60
Joey Bart
RHB·1 HR / 45 PA·Brl 8.0%
10.7%
H 63·K 60
Spencer Horwitz
LHB·3 HR / 107 PA·Brl 1.4%
10.5%
H 61·K 43
Bryan Reynolds
SHB·4 HR / 147 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.3%
H 67·K 57
Billy Cook
RHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.3%
H 64·K 52
Henry Davis
RHB·2 HR / 78 PA·Brl 3.9%
9.6%
H 57·K 53
Nick Yorke
RHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
9.5%
H 64·K 52
Jake Mangum
SHB·0 HR / 77 PA·Brl 0.0%
8.3%
H 65·K 52
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.