Matchup · Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Atlanta Braves
at Seattle Mariners

9:40 PM ET · 6:40 PM PTT-Mobile Park, Seattleretractable roof

The Headline

Matt Olson enters this game with a 16.4% model-estimated probability of homering at T-Mobile Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor92

RHB HR factor89

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Bryce Elder

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA1.88

WHIP1.05

IP43.0

HR/90.40

K/97.5

xwOBA0.276

Barrel%3.3%

Hard-hit%38.8%

Home Starter · RHP

George Kirby

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA3.00

WHIP1.13

IP45.0

HR/90.80

K/96.8

xwOBA0.270

Barrel%3.8%

Hard-hit%40.5%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Atlanta Braves

vs George Kirby

Matt Olson

LHB·12 HR / 162 PA·Brl 18.3%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA

16.4%

H 66·K 46

Michael Harris II

LHB·7 HR / 114 PA·Brl 18.4%

vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA

15.0%

H 67·K 44

Drake Baldwin

LHB·9 HR / 166 PA·Brl 14.4%

14.3%

H 71·K 51

Ozzie Albies

SHB·8 HR / 155 PA·Brl 4.1%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

12.7%

H 72·K 43

Dominic Smith

LHB·4 HR / 73 PA·Brl 10.2%

vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA

12.3%

H 66·K 43

Eli White

RHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 7.3%

11.6%

H 66·K 51

Austin Riley

RHB·5 HR / 152 PA·Brl 8.5%

vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA

vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 3 K · 7 PA

vs SP: 5-for-9 · .556 · 0 HR · 1 K · 10 PA

10.8%

H 64·K 52

Jorge Mateo

RHB·2 HR / 47 PA·Brl 15.4%

vs SP: 3-for-12 · .250 · 0 HR · 3 K · 13 PA

10.7%

H 66·K 60

Kyle Farmer

RHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

10.0%

H 64·K 52

Mike Yastrzemski

LHB·0 HR / 113 PA·Brl 2.7%

vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

8.3%

H 62·K 52

Home Lineup

Seattle Mariners

vs Bryce Elder

Cal Raleigh

SHB·7 HR / 147 PA·Brl 13.6%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

13.8%

H 55·K 55

Luke Raley

LHB·6 HR / 99 PA·Brl 18.9%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

12.9%

H 58·K 61

Rob Refsnyder

RHB·2 HR / 47 PA·Brl 9.7%

11.7%

H 61·K 54

Dominic Canzone

LHB·3 HR / 83 PA·Brl 16.4%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

11.2%

H 64·K 58

J.P. Crawford

LHB·3 HR / 120 PA·Brl 9.3%

vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

11.0%

H 66·K 44

Julio Rodríguez

RHB·4 HR / 157 PA·Brl 7.7%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 1 HR · 1 K · 8 PA

10.7%

H 63·K 53

Connor Joe

RHB·1 HR / 22 PA·Brl 15.4%

10.7%

H 63·K 53

Josh Naylor

LHB·4 HR / 143 PA·Brl 6.9%

vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA

RHB·3 HR / 150 PA·Brl 6.5%

vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

10.1%

H 59·K 61

Jhonny Pereda

RHB·0 HR / 3 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.0%

H 63·K 53

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.