Matchup · Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Boston Red Sox
at Detroit Tigers
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTComerica Park, Detroitopen roof
The Headline
Spencer Torkelson enters this game with a 16.2% model-estimated probability of homering at Comerica Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor92
RHB HR factor94
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Jovani Morán
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.33
WHIP1.09
IP19.1
HR/90.90
K/97.9
xwOBA0.290
Barrel%8.0%
Hard-hit%28.0%
Home Starter · LHP
Framber Valdez
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.35
WHIP1.26
IP40.1
HR/90.50
K/97.1
xwOBA0.307
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%43.2%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Boston Red Sox
Willson Contreras
RHB·7 HR / 147 PA·Brl 18.5%
vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
13.8%
H 70·K 57
Jarren Duran
LHB·4 HR / 127 PA·Brl 12.0%
11.8%
H 68·K 52
Carlos Narváez
RHB·2 HR / 78 PA·Brl 10.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.2%
H 58·K 60
Nate Eaton
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
10.7%
H 64·K 52
Wilyer Abreu
LHB·4 HR / 145 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
10.2%
H 67·K 43
Andruw Monasterio
RHB·1 HR / 55 PA·Brl 8.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
10.0%
H 65·K 48
Marcelo Mayer
LHB·1 HR / 101 PA·Brl 8.6%
8.7%
H 64·K 44
Roman Anthony
LHB·1 HR / 130 PA·Brl 9.3%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
8.6%
H 67·K 53
Caleb Durbin
RHB·1 HR / 122 PA·Brl 1.1%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
8.5%
H 56·K 43
Connor Wong
RHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
8.4%
H 58·K 45
Masataka Yoshida
LHB·0 HR / 65 PA·Brl 0.0%
8.3%
H 64·K 44
Ceddanne Rafaela
RHB·1 HR / 122 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 4-for-7 · .571 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
8.2%
H 60·K 55
Home Lineup
Detroit Tigers
vs Jovani Morán
Spencer Torkelson
RHB·6 HR / 136 PA·Brl 16.4%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 4 K · 6 PA
16.2%
H 60·K 62
Dillon Dingler
RHB·6 HR / 118 PA·Brl 17.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.9%
H 65·K 48
Jahmai Jones
RHB·2 HR / 42 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
13.6%
H 63·K 60
Kerry Carpenter
LHB·6 HR / 110 PA·Brl 11.9%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
13.3%
H 61·K 61
Riley Greene
LHB·4 HR / 149 PA·Brl 14.1%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
12.8%
H 66·K 62
Hao-Yu Lee
RHB·1 HR / 40 PA·Brl 14.3%
11.9%
H 57·K 61
Zack Short
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.5%
H 63·K 54
Javier Báez
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
11.5%
H 63·K 54
Jace Jung
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.4%
H 63·K 54
Wenceel Pérez
SHB·2 HR / 65 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.3%
H 61·K 45
Kevin McGonigle
LHB·2 HR / 150 PA·Brl 12.6%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.4%
H 65·K 45
Jake Rogers
RHB·0 HR / 37 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
9.9%
H 62·K 57
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.