Matchup · Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Atlanta Braves
at Seattle Mariners

4:10 PM ET · 1:10 PM PTT-Mobile Park, Seattleretractable roof

The Headline

Matt Olson enters this game with a 17.7% model-estimated probability of homering at T-Mobile Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor92

RHB HR factor89

Probable Starters

Away Starter · LHP

Martín Pérez

HR VulnerabilityGood

Contact Quality AllowedAbove average

ERA2.22

WHIP0.99

IP28.1

HR/91.00

K/96.0

xwOBA0.333

Barrel%6.2%

Hard-hit%42.0%

Home Starter · RHP

Bryan Woo

HR VulnerabilityAverage

Contact Quality AllowedBelow average

ERA4.61

WHIP1.07

IP41.0

HR/91.30

K/96.4

xwOBA0.319

Barrel%10.1%

Hard-hit%48.1%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Atlanta Braves

vs Bryan Woo

Matt Olson

LHB·13 HR / 166 PA·Brl 18.9%

17.7%

H 72·K 44

Michael Harris II

LHB·7 HR / 118 PA·Brl 18.4%

15.9%

H 67·K 43

Drake Baldwin

LHB·9 HR / 170 PA·Brl 14.8%

15.6%

H 69·K 51

Ozzie Albies

SHB·8 HR / 159 PA·Brl 4.8%

13.7%

H 72·K 43

Austin Riley

RHB·5 HR / 156 PA·Brl 9.2%

12.6%

H 66·K 59

Eli White

RHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 6.8%

12.3%

H 67·K 52

Dominic Smith

LHB·4 HR / 77 PA·Brl 10.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

RHB·0 HR / 3 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.4%

H 64·K 51

Jorge Mateo

RHB·2 HR / 50 PA·Brl 14.3%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA

11.4%

H 66·K 59

Kyle Farmer

RHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

10.7%

H 65·K 51

Mike Yastrzemski

LHB·0 HR / 116 PA·Brl 2.6%

vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 1 HR · 3 K · 9 PA

8.8%

H 61·K 51

Home Lineup

Seattle Mariners

vs Martín Pérez

Cal Raleigh

SHB·7 HR / 151 PA·Brl 13.6%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA

15.3%

H 56·K 55

Luke Raley

LHB·6 HR / 101 PA·Brl 20.0%

14.3%

H 59·K 59

J.P. Crawford

LHB·4 HR / 124 PA·Brl 9.0%

vs SP: 4-for-17 · .235 · 0 HR · 4 K · 17 PA

13.3%

H 63·K 43

Rob Refsnyder

RHB·2 HR / 48 PA·Brl 9.4%

vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 11 PA

13.0%

H 62·K 53

Dominic Canzone

LHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 16.1%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

12.4%

H 65·K 55

Julio Rodríguez

RHB·4 HR / 161 PA·Brl 7.4%

vs SP: 1-for-10 · .100 · 0 HR · 3 K · 12 PA

vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 0 K · 9 PA

11.8%

H 64·K 51

Connor Joe

RHB·1 HR / 22 PA·Brl 15.4%

vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 12 PA

11.8%

H 64·K 51

Josh Naylor

LHB·4 HR / 147 PA·Brl 6.5%

vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA

RHB·3 HR / 154 PA·Brl 6.3%

vs SP: 4-for-17 · .235 · 1 HR · 4 K · 17 PA

11.1%

H 59·K 59

Jhonny Pereda

RHB·0 HR / 3 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.1%

H 63·K 51

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.