Matchup · Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers
at St. Louis Cardinals
7:45 PM ET · 4:45 PM PTBusch Stadium, St. Louisopen roof
The Headline
Jordan Walker enters this game with a 15.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Busch Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor94
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Brandon Sproat
HR Vulnerability—
Contact Quality Allowed—
ERA—
WHIP—
IP—
HR/9—
K/9—
xwOBA—
Barrel%undefined%
Hard-hit%undefined%
Home Starter · RHP
Andre Pallante
HR Vulnerability—
Contact Quality Allowed—
ERA—
WHIP—
IP—
HR/9—
K/9—
xwOBA—
Barrel%undefined%
Hard-hit%undefined%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
Gary Sánchez
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.3%
H 63·K 48
Brice Turang
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 5-for-13 · .385 · 0 HR · 1 K · 13 PA
12.1%
H 72·K 50
Luis Matos
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.5%
H 64·K 53
Jackson Chourio
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 0 HR · 1 K · 11 PA
11.5%
H 64·K 53
Blake Perkins
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.5%
H 64·K 53
Andrew Vaughn
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.3%
H 64·K 53
Sal Frelick
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 0 K · 11 PA
11.3%
H 61·K 45
Jake Bauers
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
11.1%
H 60·K 53
William Contreras
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 3-for-12 · .250 · 1 HR · 1 K · 13 PA
10.3%
H 71·K 45
Tyler Black
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
10.2%
H 64·K 53
Garrett Mitchell
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
9.3%
H 61·K 61
Joey Ortiz
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
9.1%
H 62·K 48
Home Lineup
St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Walker
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
15.9%
H 72·K 61
JJ Wetherholt
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
15.1%
H 63·K 51
Nathan Church
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
14.4%
H 64·K 53
Alec Burleson
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
14.3%
H 68·K 53
Nolan Gorman
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
13.6%
H 64·K 55
Pedro Pagés
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.9%
H 60·K 56
Iván Herrera
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.5%
H 68·K 54
Thomas Saggese
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.3%
H 64·K 54
José Fermín
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.7%
H 65·K 54
Yohel Pozo
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.2%
H 64·K 54
Ramón Urías
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.1%
H 62·K 46
Victor Scott II
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
10.5%
H 62·K 60
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.