Matchup · Friday, April 17, 2026
New York Mets
at Chicago Cubs
2:20 PM ET · 11:20 AM PTWrigley Field, Chicagoopen roof
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Kodai Senga
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA8.83
WHIP1.90
IP17.1
HR/92.10
K/911.4
xwOBA0.316
Barrel%10.5%
Hard-hit%47.4%
Home Starter · RHP
Edward Cabrera
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.38
WHIP1.28
IP22.2
HR/90.00
K/96.8
xwOBA0.309
Barrel%9.1%
Hard-hit%38.6%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
New York Mets
Francisco Alvarez
RHB·4 HR / 63 PA·Brl 21.6%
—
Luis Robert Jr.
RHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 4.8%
—
Marcus Semien
RHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 5.7%
—
Mark Vientos
RHB·1 HR / 49 PA·Brl 2.9%
—
Tyrone Taylor
RHB·1 HR / 27 PA·Brl 5.0%
—
Bo Bichette
RHB·1 HR / 90 PA·Brl 1.7%
—
Carson Benge
LHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 5.3%
—
Francisco Lindor
SHB·1 HR / 91 PA·Brl 8.3%
—
Jorge Polanco
SHB·1 HR / 61 PA·Brl 4.4%
—
Luis Torrens
RHB·0 HR / 19 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
MJ Melendez
LHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 50.0%
—
Tommy Pham
RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Home Lineup
Chicago Cubs
vs Kodai Senga
Ian Happ
SHB·5 HR / 80 PA·Brl 17.5%
—
Dansby Swanson
RHB·4 HR / 79 PA·Brl 14.3%
—
Nico Hoerner
RHB·3 HR / 88 PA·Brl 1.6%
—
Moisés Ballesteros
LHB·3 HR / 44 PA·Brl 16.7%
—
Alex Bregman
RHB·2 HR / 89 PA·Brl 6.6%
—
Matt Shaw
RHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 7.3%
—
Carson Kelly
RHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 13.5%
—
Miguel Amaya
RHB·1 HR / 37 PA·Brl 4.8%
—
Pete Crow-Armstrong
LHB·1 HR / 81 PA·Brl 4.0%
—
Seiya Suzuki
RHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Michael Busch
LHB·0 HR / 76 PA·Brl 4.2%
—
Michael Conforto
LHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 8.3%
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.