Matchup · Friday, April 17, 2026
San Diego Padres
at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 PM ET · 6:38 PM PTAngel Stadium, Anaheimopen roof
The Headline
Mike Trout enters this game with a 19.1% model-estimated probability of homering at Angel Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor96
RHB HR factor97
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Matt Waldron
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality Allowed—
ERA7.36
WHIP2.18
IP3.2
HR/92.50
K/99.8
xwOBA—
Barrel%undefined%
Hard-hit%undefined%
Home Starter · RHP
José Soriano
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA0.29
WHIP0.68
IP31.0
HR/90.30
K/910.5
xwOBA0.268
Barrel%10.5%
Hard-hit%33.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
San Diego Padres
vs José Soriano
Jackson Merrill
LHB·3 HR / 82 PA·Brl 11.5%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
13.5%
Xander Bogaerts
RHB·3 HR / 79 PA·Brl 7.8%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
12.9%
Manny Machado
RHB·2 HR / 78 PA·Brl 6.5%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
12.8%
Gavin Sheets
LHB·2 HR / 62 PA·Brl 11.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
12.3%
Jake Cronenworth
LHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
11.9%
Ty France
RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 15.8%
vs SP: 4-for-8 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 12 PA
11.7%
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 84 PA·Brl 14.8%
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
11.0%
Luis Campusano
RHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 13.6%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.6%
Nick Castellanos
RHB·0 HR / 43 PA·Brl 6.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.0%
Ramón Laureano
RHB·4 HR / 76 PA·Brl 17.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
—
Bryce Johnson
SHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Freddy Fermin
RHB·0 HR / 37 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Home Lineup
Los Angeles Angels
vs Matt Waldron
Mike Trout
RHB·7 HR / 92 PA·Brl 29.4%
19.1%
Zach Neto
RHB·5 HR / 98 PA·Brl 11.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
16.7%
Jo Adell
RHB·3 HR / 88 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
15.3%
Yoán Moncada
SHB·3 HR / 68 PA·Brl 6.9%
15.0%
Oswald Peraza
RHB·4 HR / 61 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
14.8%
Josh Lowe
LHB·2 HR / 60 PA·Brl 8.8%
12.0%
Logan O'Hoppe
RHB·1 HR / 68 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.8%
Adam Frazier
LHB·1 HR / 33 PA·Brl 6.3%
11.4%
Nolan Schanuel
LHB·2 HR / 81 PA·Brl 1.7%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
11.4%
Travis d'Arnaud
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 20.0%
—
Vaughn Grissom
RHB·0 HR / 19 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Bryce Teodosio
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 8.3%
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.