Matchup · Friday, April 17, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays
at Arizona Diamondbacks
9:40 PM ET · 6:40 PM PTChase Field, Phoenixretractable roof
The Headline
Ketel Marte enters this game with a 16.3% model-estimated probability of homering at Chase Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor107
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Braydon Fisher
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA0.84
WHIP0.75
IP10.2
HR/90.80
K/910.1
xwOBA0.305
Barrel%10.5%
Hard-hit%47.4%
Home Starter · RHP
Michael Soroka
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA2.61
WHIP1.06
IP20.2
HR/90.40
K/911.3
xwOBA0.374
Barrel%22.9%
Hard-hit%51.4%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Toronto Blue Jays
Daulton Varsho
LHB·3 HR / 72 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
15.2%
Davis Schneider
RHB·1 HR / 37 PA·Brl 23.5%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
14.2%
Jesús Sánchez
LHB·2 HR / 62 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
12.5%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
RHB·1 HR / 80 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 3-for-7 · .429 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
12.5%
Andrés Giménez
LHB·3 HR / 72 PA·Brl 5.4%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 2 HR · 1 K · 11 PA
11.9%
Kazuma Okamoto
RHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 7.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.2%
Lenyn Sosa
RHB·0 HR / 43 PA·Brl 2.9%
11.0%
Tyler Heineman
SHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.0%
Ernie Clement
RHB·0 HR / 76 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
8.9%
Brandon Valenzuela
SHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 7.7%
—
Eloy Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 9 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Nathan Lukes
LHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Home Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
Ketel Marte
SHB·4 HR / 80 PA·Brl 9.3%
16.3%
Corbin Carroll
LHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 11.4%
14.4%
Jose Fernandez
RHB·2 HR / 51 PA·Brl 8.3%
13.8%
Nolan Arenado
RHB·3 HR / 67 PA·Brl 4.2%
13.6%
Ildemaro Vargas
SHB·2 HR / 51 PA·Brl 7.5%
12.7%
James McCann
RHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 12.5%
11.1%
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB·1 HR / 80 PA·Brl 1.7%
11.1%
Tim Tawa
RHB·0 HR / 40 PA·Brl 3.7%
10.5%
Jorge Barrosa
SHB·0 HR / 51 PA·Brl 6.9%
9.4%
Adrian Del Castillo
LHB·1 HR / 26 PA·Brl 5.3%
—
Alek Thomas
LHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 5.0%
—
Luken Baker
RHB·0 HR / 5 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.