Matchup · Sunday, April 19, 2026
San Diego Padres
at Los Angeles Angels
4:07 PM ET · 1:07 PM PTAngel Stadium, Anaheimopen roof
The Headline
Mike Trout enters this game with a 15.4% model-estimated probability of homering at Angel Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor96
RHB HR factor97
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Michael King
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA2.78
WHIP1.15
IP22.2
HR/90.40
K/97.9
xwOBA0.339
Barrel%11.9%
Hard-hit%33.9%
Home Starter · RHP
Walbert Urena
HR Vulnerability—
Contact Quality Allowed—
ERA—
WHIP—
IP—
HR/9—
K/9—
xwOBA—
Barrel%undefined%
Hard-hit%undefined%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
San Diego Padres
Ramón Laureano
RHB·4 HR / 81 PA·Brl 17.0%
13.3%
Xander Bogaerts
RHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 7.6%
12.1%
Jackson Merrill
LHB·3 HR / 89 PA·Brl 12.7%
12.0%
Gavin Sheets
LHB·2 HR / 66 PA·Brl 11.1%
11.8%
Ty France
RHB·1 HR / 29 PA·Brl 13.6%
11.8%
Manny Machado
RHB·2 HR / 84 PA·Brl 6.3%
11.6%
Luis Campusano
RHB·1 HR / 33 PA·Brl 13.0%
11.1%
Bryce Johnson
SHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.7%
Jake Cronenworth
LHB·1 HR / 77 PA·Brl 6.1%
10.3%
Nick Castellanos
RHB·0 HR / 46 PA·Brl 6.5%
9.7%
Freddy Fermin
RHB·0 HR / 41 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.6%
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 91 PA·Brl 14.3%
9.5%
Home Lineup
Los Angeles Angels
vs Michael King
Mike Trout
RHB·7 HR / 98 PA·Brl 28.3%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
15.4%
Oswald Peraza
RHB·4 HR / 68 PA·Brl 9.1%
13.2%
Zach Neto
RHB·5 HR / 104 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 1 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
13.2%
Jo Adell
RHB·3 HR / 95 PA·Brl 5.8%
12.7%
Yoán Moncada
SHB·3 HR / 75 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 4 K · 7 PA
12.6%
Josh Lowe
LHB·3 HR / 64 PA·Brl 8.1%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.0%
Logan O'Hoppe
RHB·1 HR / 74 PA·Brl 8.9%
10.9%
Travis d'Arnaud
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
10.8%
Adam Frazier
LHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
10.6%
Bryce Teodosio
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 8.3%
10.4%
Vaughn Grissom
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.2%
Nolan Schanuel
LHB·2 HR / 88 PA·Brl 1.6%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
9.5%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.