Matchup · Sunday, April 19, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays
at Arizona Diamondbacks
4:10 PM ET · 1:10 PM PTChase Field, Phoenixretractable roof
The Headline
Daulton Varsho enters this game with a 14.2% model-estimated probability of homering at Chase Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor107
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Kevin Gausman
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.42
WHIP0.85
IP22.1
HR/90.80
K/912.5
xwOBA0.252
Barrel%7.7%
Hard-hit%34.6%
Home Starter · RHP
Ryne Nelson
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA3.54
WHIP1.03
IP20.1
HR/91.80
K/98.4
xwOBA0.334
Barrel%10.3%
Hard-hit%51.7%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Toronto Blue Jays
vs Ryne Nelson
Daulton Varsho
LHB·3 HR / 72 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
14.2%
Brandon Valenzuela
SHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 7.7%
13.4%
Davis Schneider
RHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 21.1%
13.2%
Myles Straw
RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 5.6%
13.1%
Andrés Giménez
LHB·3 HR / 78 PA·Brl 5.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.6%
Jesús Sánchez
LHB·2 HR / 68 PA·Brl 6.4%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.4%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
RHB·1 HR / 86 PA·Brl 13.3%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 1 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
12.2%
Eloy Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.9%
Lenyn Sosa
RHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 2.6%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.3%
Kazuma Okamoto
RHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 6.8%
11.3%
Tyler Heineman
SHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.3%
Nathan Lukes
LHB·0 HR / 40 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
Home Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
Nolan Arenado
RHB·3 HR / 72 PA·Brl 7.7%
vs SP: 3-for-18 · .167 · 1 HR · 1 K · 21 PA
13.2%
Ketel Marte
SHB·4 HR / 86 PA·Brl 8.5%
vs SP: 4-for-25 · .160 · 0 HR · 4 K · 27 PA
13.0%
Corbin Carroll
LHB·3 HR / 80 PA·Brl 10.9%
12.7%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
12.4%
Ildemaro Vargas
SHB·2 HR / 56 PA·Brl 7.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.4%
Adrian Del Castillo
LHB·1 HR / 30 PA·Brl 5.3%
12.2%
Jose Fernandez
RHB·2 HR / 56 PA·Brl 7.7%
11.3%
Tim Tawa
RHB·0 HR / 42 PA·Brl 3.3%
10.8%
James McCann
RHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 3-for-15 · .200 · 0 HR · 2 K · 16 PA
10.7%
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB·1 HR / 85 PA·Brl 3.2%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.2%
Alek Thomas
LHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.1%
Jorge Barrosa
SHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 6.3%
10.0%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.