Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026
San Diego Padres
at Arizona Diamondbacks
6:05 PM ET · 3:05 PM PTEstadio Alfredo Harp Helu, Mexico City
The Headline
Ildemaro Vargas enters this game with a 15.3% model-estimated probability of homering at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor100
RHB HR factor100
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Germán Márquez
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA3.86
WHIP1.39
IP18.2
HR/92.40
K/97.2
xwOBA0.366
Barrel%12.1%
Hard-hit%51.7%
Home Starter · RHP
Zac Gallen
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA3.51
WHIP1.48
IP25.2
HR/90.70
K/94.9
xwOBA0.361
Barrel%10.1%
Hard-hit%47.2%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
San Diego Padres
vs Zac Gallen
Xander Bogaerts
RHB·4 HR / 101 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 6-for-20 · .300 · 1 HR · 3 K · 21 PA
13.4%
H 73·K 49
Ramón Laureano
RHB·4 HR / 100 PA·Brl 15.4%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.8%
H 61·K 68
Luis Campusano
RHB·2 HR / 39 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 1 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
12.6%
H 69·K 59
Gavin Sheets
LHB·3 HR / 79 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 1 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
12.5%
H 60·K 58
Ty France
RHB·1 HR / 32 PA·Brl 11.5%
vs SP: 3-for-7 · .429 · 1 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
12.1%
H 71·K 58
Jackson Merrill
LHB·3 HR / 106 PA·Brl 12.7%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 6 K · 9 PA
11.6%
H 59·K 65
Manny Machado
RHB·2 HR / 101 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 8-for-30 · .267 · 1 HR · 5 K · 33 PA
11.1%
H 59·K 58
Bryce Johnson
SHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
H 65·K 58
Jake Cronenworth
LHB·1 HR / 91 PA·Brl 5.1%
vs SP: 9-for-29 · .310 · 1 HR · 6 K · 35 PA
10.5%
H 64·K 58
Nick Castellanos
RHB·0 HR / 51 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
10.0%
H 59·K 64
Freddy Fermin
RHB·0 HR / 50 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
9.9%
H 64·K 57
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 108 PA·Brl 13.2%
vs SP: 6-for-25 · .240 · 3 HR · 9 K · 30 PA
9.7%
H 67·K 63
Home Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
Ildemaro Vargas
SHB·5 HR / 73 PA·Brl 8.2%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
15.3%
H 70·K 52
Nolan Arenado
RHB·4 HR / 88 PA·Brl 7.6%
vs SP: 2-for-14 · .143 · 1 HR · 2 K · 14 PA
14.6%
H 70·K 59
Ketel Marte
SHB·4 HR / 104 PA·Brl 10.4%
vs SP: 14-for-44 · .318 · 2 HR · 7 K · 50 PA
14.5%
H 67·K 63
Corbin Carroll
LHB·3 HR / 96 PA·Brl 12.3%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 1 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
13.0%
H 68·K 68
Adrian Del Castillo
LHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 6.5%
12.5%
H 61·K 63
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
12.0%
H 58·K 62
Alek Thomas
LHB·1 HR / 72 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 3-for-13 · .231 · 0 HR · 1 K · 13 PA
11.9%
H 66·K 62
Jorge Barrosa
SHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 7.9%
11.5%
H 58·K 71
Jose Fernandez
RHB·2 HR / 70 PA·Brl 5.9%
11.4%
H 69·K 64
James McCann
RHB·0 HR / 39 PA·Brl 8.0%
vs SP: 0-for-8 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 8 PA
11.3%
H 65·K 71
Tim Tawa
RHB·0 HR / 43 PA·Brl 3.2%
11.2%
H 63·K 56
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB·1 HR / 99 PA·Brl 2.7%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 1 K · 14 PA
10.4%
H 70·K 52
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.