Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026
Detroit Tigers
at Cincinnati Reds
1:40 PM ET · 10:40 AM PTGreat American Ball Park, Cincinnatiopen roof
The Headline
Sal Stewart enters this game with a 16.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Great American Ball Park, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor115
RHB HR factor114
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Keider Montero
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.68
WHIP0.91
IP22.0
HR/90.00
K/97.4
xwOBA0.229
Barrel%3.1%
Hard-hit%40.6%
Home Starter · RHP
Rhett Lowder
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA3.10
WHIP1.14
IP29.0
HR/90.30
K/95.6
xwOBA0.321
Barrel%7.7%
Hard-hit%34.1%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Detroit Tigers
vs Rhett Lowder
Kerry Carpenter
LHB·6 HR / 84 PA·Brl 12.2%
16.4%
H 63·K 67
Spencer Torkelson
RHB·4 HR / 102 PA·Brl 13.2%
15.5%
H 67·K 66
Jahmai Jones
RHB·2 HR / 29 PA·Brl 23.8%
14.7%
H 65·K 59
Dillon Dingler
RHB·5 HR / 96 PA·Brl 18.8%
14.5%
H 60·K 49
Riley Greene
LHB·3 HR / 115 PA·Brl 14.5%
14.3%
H 72·K 63
Javier Báez
RHB·2 HR / 79 PA·Brl 3.4%
12.2%
H 61·K 54
Hao-Yu Lee
RHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 20.0%
12.1%
H 64·K 59
Wenceel Pérez
SHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 9.7%
12.0%
H 62·K 49
Kevin McGonigle
LHB·2 HR / 118 PA·Brl 12.2%
11.8%
H 72·K 49
Jake Rogers
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 16.7%
11.2%
H 63·K 59
Matt Vierling
RHB·1 HR / 56 PA·Brl 2.5%
11.1%
H 60·K 53
Colt Keith
LHB·0 HR / 83 PA·Brl 8.3%
10.3%
H 66·K 52
Home Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Sal Stewart
RHB·9 HR / 118 PA·Brl 23.7%
16.9%
H 64·K 61
Elly De La Cruz
SHB·9 HR / 122 PA·Brl 15.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
16.6%
H 68·K 66
Spencer Steer
RHB·4 HR / 95 PA·Brl 17.9%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.9%
H 65·K 65
Nathaniel Lowe
LHB·3 HR / 44 PA·Brl 10.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.5%
H 66·K 58
Dane Myers
RHB·1 HR / 45 PA·Brl 15.4%
12.3%
H 64·K 62
JJ Bleday
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.3%
H 63·K 62
Tyler Stephenson
RHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 12.8%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.2%
H 56·K 71
Matt McLain
RHB·2 HR / 117 PA·Brl 10.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.8%
H 63·K 64
P.J. Higgins
RHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.3%
H 63·K 62
Rece Hinds
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.3%
H 60·K 71
Ke'Bryan Hayes
RHB·1 HR / 72 PA·Brl 7.3%
11.2%
H 61·K 57
Will Benson
LHB·0 HR / 44 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
H 62·K 63
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.