Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026
San Diego Padres
at Arizona Diamondbacks
4:05 PM ET · 1:05 PM PTEstadio Alfredo Harp Helu, Mexico City
The Headline
Xander Bogaerts enters this game with a 14.1% model-estimated probability of homering at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor100
RHB HR factor100
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Michael King
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA2.28
WHIP1.12
IP27.2
HR/90.30
K/98.5
xwOBA0.325
Barrel%10.4%
Hard-hit%37.3%
Home Starter · RHP
Ryne Nelson
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA6.97
WHIP1.45
IP20.2
HR/91.70
K/98.7
xwOBA0.355
Barrel%10.6%
Hard-hit%51.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
San Diego Padres
vs Ryne Nelson
Xander Bogaerts
RHB·4 HR / 105 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 5-for-14 · .357 · 3 HR · 3 K · 14 PA
14.1%
H 71·K 53
Gavin Sheets
LHB·3 HR / 83 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
13.8%
H 61·K 63
Ramón Laureano
RHB·4 HR / 105 PA·Brl 15.4%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
13.5%
H 61·K 73
Luis Campusano
RHB·2 HR / 39 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
13.2%
H 68·K 64
Ty France
RHB·3 HR / 36 PA·Brl 11.5%
12.7%
H 61·K 55
Jackson Merrill
LHB·3 HR / 110 PA·Brl 12.7%
vs SP: 5-for-12 · .417 · 1 HR · 1 K · 12 PA
12.2%
H 58·K 70
Manny Machado
RHB·2 HR / 105 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 6-for-23 · .261 · 1 HR · 4 K · 26 PA
11.7%
H 60·K 60
Bryce Johnson
SHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.5%
H 64·K 63
Jake Cronenworth
LHB·1 HR / 95 PA·Brl 5.1%
vs SP: 6-for-23 · .261 · 1 HR · 3 K · 25 PA
11.2%
H 62·K 63
Nick Castellanos
RHB·0 HR / 51 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
10.5%
H 58·K 69
Freddy Fermin
RHB·0 HR / 54 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
10.5%
H 63·K 62
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 113 PA·Brl 13.2%
vs SP: 6-for-16 · .375 · 0 HR · 4 K · 18 PA
10.2%
H 64·K 66
Home Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
vs Michael King
Ildemaro Vargas
SHB·5 HR / 77 PA·Brl 8.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
13.7%
H 68·K 53
Nolan Arenado
RHB·4 HR / 92 PA·Brl 7.6%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.2%
H 69·K 59
Ketel Marte
SHB·4 HR / 109 PA·Brl 10.4%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
13.0%
H 66·K 60
Corbin Carroll
LHB·3 HR / 100 PA·Brl 12.3%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
11.6%
H 64·K 69
Adrian Del Castillo
LHB·1 HR / 47 PA·Brl 6.5%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.1%
H 60·K 67
Alek Thomas
LHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.7%
H 68·K 61
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 4-for-16 · .250 · 1 HR · 2 K · 16 PA
10.7%
H 57·K 63
Jorge Barrosa
SHB·1 HR / 64 PA·Brl 7.9%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.3%
H 62·K 73
Jose Fernandez
RHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 5.9%
10.2%
H 69·K 64
James McCann
RHB·0 HR / 39 PA·Brl 8.0%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
10.2%
H 64·K 72
Tim Tawa
RHB·0 HR / 44 PA·Brl 3.2%
10.0%
H 62·K 57
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB·1 HR / 102 PA·Brl 2.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
9.4%
H 69·K 58
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.