Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Miami Marlins
at Los Angeles Dodgers
10:10 PM ET · 7:10 PM PTUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angelesopen roof
The Headline
Max Muncy enters this game with a 16.4% model-estimated probability of homering at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor102
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Janson Junk
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.67
WHIP1.15
IP27.0
HR/90.70
K/95.7
xwOBA0.299
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%40.5%
Home Starter · RHP
Shohei Ohtani
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA0.38
WHIP0.75
IP24.0
HR/90.00
K/99.4
xwOBA0.227
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%35.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Miami Marlins
Liam Hicks
LHB·6 HR / 100 PA·Brl 6.0%
12.7%
H 64·K 54
Connor Norby
RHB·3 HR / 101 PA·Brl 8.8%
11.3%
H 58·K 63
Christopher Morel
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.2%
H 62·K 55
Otto Lopez
RHB·3 HR / 118 PA·Brl 10.5%
11.1%
H 66·K 56
Agustín Ramírez
RHB·2 HR / 113 PA·Brl 5.3%
10.8%
H 63·K 55
Kyle Stowers
LHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 5.3%
10.6%
H 57·K 48
Leo Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.3%
H 62·K 55
Graham Pauley
LHB·1 HR / 64 PA·Brl 4.5%
10.2%
H 61·K 58
Owen Caissie
LHB·2 HR / 90 PA·Brl 13.6%
10.1%
H 56·K 63
Jakob Marsee
LHB·1 HR / 131 PA·Brl 2.4%
9.1%
H 60·K 49
Heriberto Hernández
RHB·0 HR / 74 PA·Brl 4.2%
9.0%
H 60·K 55
Javier Sanoja
RHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 2.0%
8.6%
H 63·K 47
Home Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
vs Janson Junk
Max Muncy
LHB·9 HR / 108 PA·Brl 19.0%
16.4%
H 66·K 59
Dalton Rushing
LHB·7 HR / 45 PA·Brl 17.9%
16.0%
H 68·K 62
Shohei Ohtani
LHB·6 HR / 134 PA·Brl 21.6%
14.2%
H 64·K 62
Teoscar Hernández
RHB·4 HR / 105 PA·Brl 12.7%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
12.6%
H 61·K 64
Andy Pages
RHB·5 HR / 115 PA·Brl 6.4%
11.8%
H 65·K 48
Kyle Tucker
LHB·3 HR / 125 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.8%
H 63·K 50
Will Smith
RHB·3 HR / 94 PA·Brl 10.8%
11.7%
H 59·K 48
Hyeseong Kim
LHB·1 HR / 54 PA·Brl 6.1%
11.1%
H 70·K 52
Miguel Rojas
RHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 8.1%
11.0%
H 66·K 44
Freddie Freeman
LHB·3 HR / 119 PA·Brl 14.4%
10.8%
H 60·K 44
Alex Freeland
SHB·1 HR / 79 PA·Brl 13.3%
10.1%
H 64·K 59
Santiago Espinal
RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.0%
H 64·K 51
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.