Matchup · Saturday, May 9, 2026
New York Mets
at Arizona Diamondbacks
7:15 PM ET · 4:15 PM PTChase Field, Phoenixretractable roof
The Headline
Mark Vientos enters this game with a 17.3% model-estimated probability of homering at Chase Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor107
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Clay Holmes
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA1.69
WHIP0.98
IP42.2
HR/90.60
K/96.5
xwOBA0.309
Barrel%4.1%
Hard-hit%43.4%
Home Starter · RHP
Merrill Kelly
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA9.95
WHIP2.32
IP19.0
HR/92.80
K/96.6
xwOBA0.487
Barrel%18.8%
Hard-hit%44.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
New York Mets
Mark Vientos
RHB·5 HR / 108 PA·Brl 9.6%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
17.3%
H 66·K 53
Juan Soto
LHB·4 HR / 99 PA·Brl 22.1%
vs SP: 5-for-19 · .263 · 1 HR · 2 K · 21 PA
16.1%
H 62·K 46
MJ Melendez
LHB·2 HR / 50 PA·Brl 12.0%
14.7%
H 66·K 61
Francisco Lindor
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 3-for-11 · .273 · 0 HR · 4 K · 13 PA
14.1%
H 66·K 53
Tommy Pham
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 5-for-21 · .238 · 1 HR · 8 K · 23 PA
14.0%
H 66·K 53
Luis Robert Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
14.0%
H 66·K 53
Jorge Polanco
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
14.0%
H 66·K 53
Eric Wagaman
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
13.9%
H 66·K 53
Ronny Mauricio
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
13.9%
H 66·K 53
Hayden Senger
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
13.8%
H 66·K 53
Carson Benge
LHB·3 HR / 120 PA·Brl 5.0%
13.5%
H 65·K 50
Vidal Bruján
SHB·0 HR / 4 PA·Brl 0.0%
13.4%
H 65·K 53
Home Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
vs Clay Holmes
Ildemaro Vargas
SHB·6 HR / 125 PA·Brl 4.9%
13.6%
H 64·K 43
Nolan Arenado
RHB·6 HR / 128 PA·Brl 7.9%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
13.4%
H 64·K 48
Corbin Carroll
LHB·5 HR / 146 PA·Brl 11.6%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
12.7%
H 60·K 56
Adrian Del Castillo
LHB·3 HR / 80 PA·Brl 8.0%
12.1%
H 62·K 59
Ketel Marte
SHB·5 HR / 149 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.9%
H 58·K 48
Alek Thomas
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 51
Tim Tawa
RHB·1 HR / 54 PA·Brl 2.7%
11.4%
H 62·K 54
Jose Fernandez
RHB·3 HR / 106 PA·Brl 5.5%
11.1%
H 64·K 53
Gabriel Moreno
RHB·1 HR / 66 PA·Brl 11.4%
11.1%
H 63·K 52
Jorge Barrosa
SHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 7.8%
10.5%
H 56·K 52
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB·2 HR / 142 PA·Brl 4.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
9.9%
H 58·K 46
James McCann
RHB·0 HR / 54 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
9.7%
H 57·K 57
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.