Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Chicago White Sox
at Arizona Diamondbacks
9:40 PM ET · 6:40 PM PTChase Field, Phoenixretractable roof
The Headline
Munetaka Murakami enters this game with a 17.4% model-estimated probability of homering at Chase Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor107
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Sean Burke
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA4.43
WHIP1.28
IP20.1
HR/90.90
K/97.5
xwOBA0.341
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%39.7%
Home Starter · RHP
Merrill Kelly
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA3.38
WHIP1.69
IP5.1
HR/91.70
K/95.1
xwOBA0.451
Barrel%17.6%
Hard-hit%41.2%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Chicago White Sox
Munetaka Murakami
LHB·8 HR / 93 PA·Brl 26.2%
17.4%
Colson Montgomery
LHB·5 HR / 88 PA·Brl 12.8%
15.3%
Everson Pereira
RHB·3 HR / 41 PA·Brl 16.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
14.7%
Tanner Murray
RHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 5.6%
13.0%
Derek Hill
RHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 5.9%
12.9%
Miguel Vargas
RHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.8%
Andrew Benintendi
LHB·1 HR / 66 PA·Brl 13.5%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.9%
Sam Antonacci
LHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 6.7%
11.5%
Reese McGuire
LHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.3%
Tristan Peters
LHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 3.6%
10.4%
Chase Meidroth
RHB·1 HR / 88 PA·Brl 5.0%
10.2%
Edgar Quero
SHB·0 HR / 62 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.2%
Home Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
vs Sean Burke
Ketel Marte
SHB·4 HR / 90 PA·Brl 10.6%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
14.1%
Corbin Carroll
LHB·3 HR / 82 PA·Brl 12.0%
13.2%
Nolan Arenado
RHB·3 HR / 75 PA·Brl 7.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.2%
Ildemaro Vargas
SHB·2 HR / 60 PA·Brl 6.1%
12.5%
Adrian Del Castillo
LHB·1 HR / 34 PA·Brl 8.0%
12.2%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.0%
Jose Fernandez
RHB·2 HR / 60 PA·Brl 6.7%
11.3%
James McCann
RHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.1%
Tim Tawa
RHB·0 HR / 43 PA·Brl 3.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.8%
Jorge Barrosa
SHB·1 HR / 55 PA·Brl 8.8%
10.5%
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB·1 HR / 85 PA·Brl 3.1%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
10.3%
Alek Thomas
LHB·0 HR / 65 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.1%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.