Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers
at San Francisco Giants
9:45 PM ET · 6:45 PM PTOracle Park, San Franciscoopen roof
The Headline
Max Muncy enters this game with a 13.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Oracle Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor85
RHB HR factor93
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.10
WHIP0.82
IP25.2
HR/91.10
K/97.4
xwOBA0.300
Barrel%8.6%
Hard-hit%31.4%
Home Starter · RHP
Landen Roupp
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.38
WHIP0.97
IP22.2
HR/90.00
K/99.5
xwOBA0.259
Barrel%0.0%
Hard-hit%26.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
vs Landen Roupp
Max Muncy
LHB·8 HR / 85 PA·Brl 17.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
13.8%
Dalton Rushing
LHB·7 HR / 28 PA·Brl 25.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
13.5%
Shohei Ohtani
LHB·5 HR / 103 PA·Brl 26.3%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
13.2%
Teoscar Hernández
RHB·4 HR / 77 PA·Brl 13.6%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
12.8%
Andy Pages
RHB·5 HR / 89 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
12.2%
Kyle Tucker
LHB·3 HR / 95 PA·Brl 7.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.0%
Miguel Rojas
RHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 3.8%
10.4%
Freddie Freeman
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
10.4%
Hyeseong Kim
LHB·1 HR / 32 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
10.0%
Will Smith
RHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 10.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.9%
Alex Call
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.7%
Santiago Espinal
RHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.7%
Home Lineup
San Francisco Giants
Willy Adames
RHB·3 HR / 95 PA·Brl 12.7%
vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 1 HR · 3 K · 12 PA
11.9%
Casey Schmitt
RHB·2 HR / 69 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 1 HR · 3 K · 12 PA
11.7%
Drew Gilbert
LHB·1 HR / 18 PA·Brl 7.7%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.3%
Heliot Ramos
RHB·2 HR / 83 PA·Brl 15.7%
vs SP: 2-for-13 · .154 · 0 HR · 3 K · 15 PA
11.2%
Christian Koss
RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.1%
Jerar Encarnacion
RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 5.0%
10.3%
Daniel Susac
RHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 5.0%
10.3%
Rafael Devers
LHB·2 HR / 94 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 0-for-8 · .000 · 0 HR · 5 K · 9 PA
10.2%
Patrick Bailey
SHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
9.3%
Matt Chapman
RHB·1 HR / 94 PA·Brl 4.1%
vs SP: 0-for-9 · .000 · 0 HR · 6 K · 12 PA
9.3%
Jung Hoo Lee
LHB·1 HR / 87 PA·Brl 1.5%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 1 K · 10 PA
9.2%
Luis Arraez
LHB·0 HR / 90 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
8.1%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.