Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays
at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 PM ET · 6:38 PM PTAngel Stadium, Anaheimopen roof
The Headline
Mike Trout enters this game with a 15.6% model-estimated probability of homering at Angel Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor96
RHB HR factor97
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Patrick Corbin
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA4.66
WHIP1.24
IP9.2
HR/91.90
K/98.4
xwOBA0.426
Barrel%17.9%
Hard-hit%42.9%
Home Starter · RHP
Jack Kochanowicz
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA3.47
WHIP1.24
IP23.1
HR/90.40
K/96.9
xwOBA0.355
Barrel%10.6%
Hard-hit%36.4%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Toronto Blue Jays
Daulton Varsho
LHB·3 HR / 76 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.8%
Brandon Valenzuela
SHB·1 HR / 28 PA·Brl 6.7%
11.6%
Davis Schneider
RHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 21.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.6%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
RHB·2 HR / 95 PA·Brl 11.9%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.5%
Myles Straw
RHB·1 HR / 33 PA·Brl 4.2%
11.2%
Jesús Sánchez
LHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 7.3%
11.2%
Kazuma Okamoto
RHB·3 HR / 89 PA·Brl 10.4%
10.8%
Andrés Giménez
LHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 4.5%
10.6%
Eloy Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 8.3%
10.6%
Lenyn Sosa
RHB·0 HR / 48 PA·Brl 2.6%
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
9.8%
Tyler Heineman
SHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.8%
Nathan Lukes
LHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.5%
Home Lineup
Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout
RHB·7 HR / 106 PA·Brl 25.9%
vs SP: 2-for-14 · .143 · 0 HR · 7 K · 14 PA
15.6%
Zach Neto
RHB·5 HR / 112 PA·Brl 11.7%
vs SP: 5-for-11 · .455 · 1 HR · 4 K · 12 PA
13.8%
Jorge Soler
RHB·5 HR / 87 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 2-for-22 · .091 · 0 HR · 7 K · 26 PA
13.8%
Oswald Peraza
RHB·4 HR / 70 PA·Brl 10.6%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
13.8%
Jo Adell
RHB·3 HR / 103 PA·Brl 5.4%
vs SP: 3-for-11 · .273 · 0 HR · 2 K · 12 PA
12.8%
Yoán Moncada
SHB·3 HR / 83 PA·Brl 7.9%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.7%
Josh Lowe
LHB·3 HR / 70 PA·Brl 7.5%
12.6%
Logan O'Hoppe
RHB·1 HR / 79 PA·Brl 10.6%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
11.3%
Adam Frazier
LHB·1 HR / 46 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
11.1%
Bryce Teodosio
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
10.8%
Travis d'Arnaud
RHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 9-for-24 · .375 · 0 HR · 4 K · 25 PA
10.6%
Vaughn Grissom
RHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.6%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.