Matchup · Thursday, April 23, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies
at Chicago Cubs

2:20 PM ET · 11:20 AM PTWrigley Field, Chicagoopen roof

The Headline

Kyle Schwarber enters this game with a 16.1% model-estimated probability of homering at Wrigley Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor104

RHB HR factor103

Probable Starters

Away Starter · LHP

Cristopher Sánchez

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedBelow average

ERA1.59

WHIP1.41

IP28.1

HR/90.30

K/912.4

xwOBA0.268

Barrel%10.5%

Hard-hit%43.4%

Home Starter · RHP

Edward Cabrera

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedBelow average

ERA2.38

WHIP1.28

IP22.2

HR/90.00

K/96.8

xwOBA0.327

Barrel%11.1%

Hard-hit%38.1%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Philadelphia Phillies

vs Edward Cabrera

Kyle Schwarber

LHB·8 HR / 106 PA·Brl 22.4%

vs SP: 3-for-18 · .167 · 2 HR · 6 K · 22 PA

16.1%

H 60·K 71

Bryce Harper

LHB·5 HR / 100 PA·Brl 14.5%

vs SP: 4-for-10 · .400 · 1 HR · 1 K · 10 PA

13.8%

H 68·K 55

Felix Reyes

RHB·1 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 1 HR · 4 K · 11 PA

11.6%

H 64·K 61

Edmundo Sosa

RHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 4.0%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

11.2%

H 63·K 58

Brandon Marsh

LHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 5.0%

vs SP: 3-for-11 · .273 · 0 HR · 2 K · 14 PA

11.2%

H 59·K 60

Rafael Marchán

SHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 4.2%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

11.0%

H 56·K 63

Dylan Moore

RHB·0 HR / 10 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.0%

H 63·K 61

Trea Turner

RHB·2 HR / 106 PA·Brl 4.0%

vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 0 HR · 0 K · 13 PA

10.5%

H 56·K 52

Adolis García

RHB·2 HR / 97 PA·Brl 10.5%

10.3%

H 59·K 69

Justin Crawford

LHB·0 HR / 73 PA·Brl 2.1%

9.2%

H 64·K 57

Home Lineup

Chicago Cubs

vs Cristopher Sánchez

Dansby Swanson

RHB·5 HR / 99 PA·Brl 14.8%

vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 1 HR · 4 K · 9 PA

15.0%

H 55·K 64

Ian Happ

SHB·6 HR / 102 PA·Brl 17.0%

vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 1 HR · 1 K · 8 PA

14.0%

H 68·K 74

Moisés Ballesteros

LHB·3 HR / 55 PA·Brl 13.9%

13.7%

H 65·K 58

Nico Hoerner

RHB·4 HR / 112 PA·Brl 3.6%

vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 1 HR · 2 K · 8 PA

12.7%

H 64·K 57

Seiya Suzuki

RHB·2 HR / 52 PA·Brl 3.7%

vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA

12.2%

H 63·K 70

Carson Kelly

RHB·2 HR / 69 PA·Brl 13.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

12.1%

H 66·K 63

Matt Shaw

RHB·2 HR / 62 PA·Brl 8.5%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

12.0%

H 63·K 69

Michael Conforto

LHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 7.1%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

10.4%

H 63·K 75

Pete Crow-Armstrong

LHB·1 HR / 101 PA·Brl 4.7%

vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA

10.3%

H 65·K 72

Michael Busch

LHB·1 HR / 97 PA·Brl 3.2%

10.1%

H 61·K 69

Miguel Amaya

RHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 3.8%

vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

10.1%

H 56·K 70

Alex Bregman

RHB·2 HR / 112 PA·Brl 6.3%

vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA

9.5%

H 67·K 58

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.