Matchup · Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers
at Houston Astros
8:10 PM ET · 5:10 PM PTDaikin Park, Houstonretractable roof
The Headline
Dalton Rushing enters this game with a 15.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Daikin Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor101
RHB HR factor106
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Shohei Ohtani
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA0.60
WHIP0.87
IP30.0
HR/90.00
K/910.2
xwOBA0.239
Barrel%2.7%
Hard-hit%37.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Peter Lambert
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.52
WHIP1.24
IP15.1
HR/90.00
K/911.2
xwOBA0.276
Barrel%5.3%
Hard-hit%36.8%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dalton Rushing
LHB·7 HR / 57 PA·Brl 14.3%
15.9%
H 64·K 60
Max Muncy
LHB·9 HR / 132 PA·Brl 17.3%
vs SP: 4-for-12 · .333 · 1 HR · 3 K · 12 PA
15.1%
H 68·K 48
Shohei Ohtani
LHB·6 HR / 158 PA·Brl 19.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.3%
H 58·K 57
Will Smith
RHB·3 HR / 112 PA·Brl 12.7%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
11.7%
H 70·K 54
Kyle Tucker
LHB·4 HR / 151 PA·Brl 7.0%
11.5%
H 63·K 51
Miguel Rojas
RHB·1 HR / 56 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.2%
H 64·K 48
Alex Freeland
SHB·2 HR / 97 PA·Brl 10.3%
11.1%
H 68·K 60
Teoscar Hernández
RHB·4 HR / 127 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.8%
H 63·K 59
Andy Pages
RHB·5 HR / 140 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
10.6%
H 65·K 52
Santiago Espinal
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.0%
H 63·K 56
Freddie Freeman
LHB·3 HR / 146 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
9.9%
H 67·K 49
Alex Call
RHB·0 HR / 39 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
9.9%
H 64·K 48
Home Lineup
Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez
LHB·12 HR / 162 PA·Brl 17.4%
vs SP: 5-for-15 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 18 PA
15.5%
H 68·K 48
Christian Walker
RHB·8 HR / 148 PA·Brl 13.7%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
14.4%
H 70·K 55
Brice Matthews
RHB·3 HR / 81 PA·Brl 9.5%
12.8%
H 59·K 61
Braden Shewmake
LHB·1 HR / 11 PA·Brl 12.5%
12.1%
H 62·K 56
Shay Whitcomb
RHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 20.0%
11.6%
H 61·K 56
Isaac Paredes
RHB·3 HR / 130 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.2%
H 67·K 48
Carlos Correa
RHB·3 HR / 141 PA·Brl 10.4%
vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 0 HR · 3 K · 13 PA
11.0%
H 67·K 55
Nick Allen
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
10.9%
H 62·K 56
Christian Vázquez
RHB·2 HR / 63 PA·Brl 2.2%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
10.9%
H 64·K 49
Zach Cole
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
10.9%
H 62·K 56
Joey Loperfido
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
10.9%
H 62·K 56
Taylor Trammell
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
10.8%
H 62·K 56
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.