Matchup · Wednesday, May 6, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
at Arizona Diamondbacks
9:40 PM ET · 6:40 PM PTChase Field, Phoenixretractable roof
The Headline
Oneil Cruz enters this game with a 16.1% model-estimated probability of homering at Chase Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor107
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Paul Skenes
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.91
WHIP0.82
IP34.0
HR/91.10
K/910.3
xwOBA0.240
Barrel%6.0%
Hard-hit%31.0%
Home Starter · RHP
Michael Soroka
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA4.70
WHIP1.43
IP30.2
HR/90.90
K/910.6
xwOBA0.353
Barrel%11.4%
Hard-hit%42.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oneil Cruz
LHB·9 HR / 156 PA·Brl 20.7%
16.1%
H 65·K 65
Brandon Lowe
LHB·8 HR / 135 PA·Brl 12.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
13.6%
H 64·K 59
Henry Davis
RHB·2 HR / 84 PA·Brl 8.5%
12.9%
H 57·K 51
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB·5 HR / 143 PA·Brl 7.4%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.5%
H 64·K 59
Marcell Ozuna
RHB·3 HR / 125 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
12.5%
H 66·K 64
Nick Yorke
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
12.3%
H 64·K 57
Konnor Griffin
RHB·2 HR / 117 PA·Brl 9.6%
12.1%
H 70·K 61
Joey Bart
RHB·1 HR / 50 PA·Brl 7.4%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.1%
H 63·K 65
Spencer Horwitz
LHB·3 HR / 116 PA·Brl 1.2%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.7%
H 60·K 48
Bryan Reynolds
SHB·4 HR / 160 PA·Brl 9.6%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.6%
H 68·K 62
Billy Cook
RHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.5%
H 64·K 57
Jared Triolo
RHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.7%
H 63·K 53
Home Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
vs Paul Skenes
Ildemaro Vargas
SHB·6 HR / 113 PA·Brl 5.4%
14.5%
H 72·K 48
Adrian Del Castillo
LHB·3 HR / 71 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
13.7%
H 60·K 63
Nolan Arenado
RHB·5 HR / 120 PA·Brl 8.1%
vs SP: 5-for-14 · .357 · 1 HR · 2 K · 15 PA
13.7%
H 60·K 49
Corbin Carroll
LHB·4 HR / 134 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
13.0%
H 58·K 64
Ketel Marte
SHB·5 HR / 141 PA·Brl 9.2%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
12.5%
H 57·K 52
Alek Thomas
LHB·2 HR / 96 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
12.1%
H 55·K 58
Tim Tawa
RHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 2.8%
11.8%
H 60·K 58
Jose Fernandez
RHB·3 HR / 97 PA·Brl 5.6%
11.7%
H 58·K 52
Gabriel Moreno
RHB·1 HR / 58 PA·Brl 13.2%
11.6%
H 65·K 55
Jorge Barrosa
SHB·1 HR / 76 PA·Brl 8.2%
11.1%
H 60·K 53
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB·2 HR / 129 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 0-for-7 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
10.6%
H 60·K 50
James McCann
RHB·0 HR / 52 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
10.2%
H 55·K 63
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.