Matchup · Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Los Angeles Dodgers
at San Francisco Giants

9:45 PM ET · 6:45 PM PTOracle Park, San Franciscoopen roof

The Headline

Dalton Rushing enters this game with a 15.5% model-estimated probability of homering at Oracle Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor85

RHB HR factor93

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Shohei Ohtani

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA0.50

WHIP0.72

IP18.0

HR/90.00

K/99.0

xwOBA0.244

Barrel%4.5%

Hard-hit%38.6%

Home Starter · RHP

Tyler Mahle

HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone

Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled

ERA7.23

WHIP1.93

IP18.2

HR/92.90

K/910.1

xwOBA0.407

Barrel%18.2%

Hard-hit%36.4%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Los Angeles Dodgers

vs Tyler Mahle

Dalton Rushing

LHB·7 HR / 31 PA·Brl 26.3%

15.5%

H 70·K 65

Max Muncy

LHB·8 HR / 89 PA·Brl 17.6%

vs SP: 5-for-16 · .313 · 0 HR · 6 K · 19 PA

15.2%

H 68·K 69

Teoscar Hernández

RHB·4 HR / 81 PA·Brl 12.5%

vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA

14.5%

H 61·K 70

Shohei Ohtani

LHB·5 HR / 107 PA·Brl 25.0%

vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA

14.3%

H 67·K 65

Andy Pages

RHB·5 HR / 90 PA·Brl 8.3%

13.6%

H 64·K 74

Kyle Tucker

LHB·3 HR / 99 PA·Brl 7.9%

vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA

11.9%

H 63·K 62

Miguel Rojas

RHB·1 HR / 40 PA·Brl 6.7%

vs SP: 1-for-10 · .100 · 0 HR · 2 K · 11 PA

11.6%

H 64·K 55

Hyeseong Kim

LHB·1 HR / 34 PA·Brl 10.5%

11.5%

H 65·K 66

Will Smith

RHB·2 HR / 81 PA·Brl 10.2%

vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 1 HR · 0 K · 8 PA

11.5%

H 65·K 55

Freddie Freeman

LHB·3 HR / 93 PA·Brl 18.3%

vs SP: 6-for-16 · .375 · 1 HR · 3 K · 19 PA

11.5%

H 70·K 55

Santiago Espinal

RHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

11.1%

H 64·K 65

Alex Call

RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.0%

H 63·K 55

Home Lineup

San Francisco Giants

vs Shohei Ohtani

Willy Adames

RHB·3 HR / 99 PA·Brl 12.7%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA

11.2%

H 60·K 65

Casey Schmitt

RHB·2 HR / 73 PA·Brl 12.5%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

11.0%

H 64·K 64

Heliot Ramos

RHB·2 HR / 86 PA·Brl 15.7%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

10.8%

H 61·K 62

Drew Gilbert

LHB·1 HR / 21 PA·Brl 7.7%

10.7%

H 64·K 64

Christian Koss

RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.6%

H 62·K 64

Jerar Encarnacion

RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 5.0%

9.8%

H 62·K 64

Rafael Devers

LHB·2 HR / 98 PA·Brl 9.8%

vs SP: 2-for-12 · .167 · 0 HR · 5 K · 12 PA

9.6%

H 57·K 70

Matt Chapman

RHB·1 HR / 98 PA·Brl 4.1%

vs SP: 4-for-19 · .211 · 2 HR · 8 K · 21 PA

9.0%

H 68·K 56

Patrick Bailey

SHB·0 HR / 60 PA·Brl 4.8%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

8.9%

H 60·K 61

Jung Hoo Lee

LHB·1 HR / 90 PA·Brl 1.5%

vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

8.9%

H 69·K 56

Luis Arraez

LHB·0 HR / 94 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 3-for-7 · .429 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA

7.7%

H 61·K 52

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.