Matchup · Thursday, April 23, 2026
Chicago White Sox
at Arizona Diamondbacks
3:40 PM ET · 12:40 PM PTChase Field, Phoenixretractable roof
The Headline
Munetaka Murakami enters this game with a 17.6% model-estimated probability of homering at Chase Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor107
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Davis Martin
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.16
WHIP1.00
IP25.0
HR/90.70
K/96.8
xwOBA0.344
Barrel%8.8%
Hard-hit%52.9%
Home Starter · RHP
Michael Soroka
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA2.78
WHIP1.06
IP22.2
HR/90.80
K/911.1
xwOBA0.350
Barrel%16.1%
Hard-hit%48.2%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Chicago White Sox
Munetaka Murakami
LHB·10 HR / 104 PA·Brl 26.2%
17.6%
H 69·K 73
Colson Montgomery
LHB·7 HR / 98 PA·Brl 12.8%
16.2%
H 66·K 75
Miguel Vargas
RHB·5 HR / 102 PA·Brl 9.8%
14.6%
H 64·K 56
Everson Pereira
RHB·3 HR / 51 PA·Brl 16.0%
14.1%
H 66·K 71
Derek Hill
RHB·1 HR / 33 PA·Brl 5.9%
12.5%
H 63·K 71
Tanner Murray
RHB·1 HR / 26 PA·Brl 5.6%
12.5%
H 63·K 66
Sam Antonacci
LHB·1 HR / 27 PA·Brl 6.7%
12.3%
H 63·K 66
Andrew Benintendi
LHB·1 HR / 74 PA·Brl 13.5%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.5%
H 64·K 73
Reese McGuire
LHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.7%
H 65·K 66
Tristan Peters
LHB·0 HR / 54 PA·Brl 3.6%
10.0%
H 63·K 72
Edgar Quero
SHB·0 HR / 67 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.8%
H 59·K 64
Luisangel Acuña
RHB·0 HR / 69 PA·Brl 3.8%
9.8%
H 62·K 61
Home Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
vs Davis Martin
Ildemaro Vargas
SHB·5 HR / 69 PA·Brl 6.1%
14.2%
H 70·K 52
Ketel Marte
SHB·4 HR / 100 PA·Brl 10.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
13.8%
H 66·K 61
Nolan Arenado
RHB·4 HR / 84 PA·Brl 7.0%
13.8%
H 69·K 55
Corbin Carroll
LHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 12.0%
12.2%
H 68·K 67
Adrian Del Castillo
LHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 8.0%
11.8%
H 61·K 62
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.5%
H 58·K 61
Jorge Barrosa
SHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 8.8%
11.1%
H 63·K 69
Alek Thomas
LHB·1 HR / 69 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.1%
H 64·K 61
Jose Fernandez
RHB·2 HR / 69 PA·Brl 6.7%
11.0%
H 69·K 62
James McCann
RHB·0 HR / 39 PA·Brl 9.1%
10.8%
H 65·K 70
Tim Tawa
RHB·0 HR / 43 PA·Brl 3.2%
10.7%
H 63·K 55
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB·1 HR / 95 PA·Brl 3.1%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.0%
H 69·K 51
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.