Matchup · Thursday, April 23, 2026

Los Angeles Dodgers
at San Francisco Giants

3:45 PM ET · 12:45 PM PTOracle Park, San Franciscoopen roof

The Headline

Max Muncy enters this game with a 14.5% model-estimated probability of homering at Oracle Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor85

RHB HR factor93

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Tyler Glasnow

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedAbove average

ERA3.24

WHIP0.84

IP25.0

HR/90.70

K/910.4

xwOBA0.260

Barrel%6.7%

Hard-hit%38.3%

Home Starter · RHP

Logan Webb

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedAbove average

ERA5.10

WHIP1.40

IP30.0

HR/90.60

K/98.1

xwOBA0.333

Barrel%6.5%

Hard-hit%52.2%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Los Angeles Dodgers

vs Logan Webb

Max Muncy

LHB·8 HR / 93 PA·Brl 17.3%

vs SP: 9-for-35 · .257 · 3 HR · 8 K · 42 PA

14.5%

H 71·K 71

Dalton Rushing

LHB·7 HR / 31 PA·Brl 23.8%

14.3%

H 68·K 66

Teoscar Hernández

RHB·4 HR / 85 PA·Brl 11.8%

vs SP: 7-for-22 · .318 · 1 HR · 5 K · 25 PA

13.2%

H 62·K 69

Shohei Ohtani

LHB·5 HR / 111 PA·Brl 24.2%

vs SP: 8-for-22 · .364 · 2 HR · 7 K · 27 PA

13.1%

H 64·K 64

Andy Pages

RHB·5 HR / 94 PA·Brl 8.3%

vs SP: 4-for-17 · .235 · 0 HR · 2 K · 18 PA

11.5%

H 58·K 66

Kyle Tucker

LHB·3 HR / 103 PA·Brl 7.8%

vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 0 HR · 1 K · 11 PA

10.6%

H 60·K 61

Miguel Rojas

RHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 6.5%

vs SP: 3-for-12 · .250 · 0 HR · 3 K · 15 PA

10.1%

H 63·K 51

Hyeseong Kim

LHB·1 HR / 37 PA·Brl 10.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

10.1%

H 64·K 64

Freddie Freeman

LHB·3 HR / 97 PA·Brl 17.8%

vs SP: 17-for-49 · .347 · 1 HR · 8 K · 51 PA

10.1%

H 69·K 49

Santiago Espinal

RHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 0.0%

9.9%

H 64·K 63

Alex Freeland

SHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 10.5%

9.7%

H 63·K 72

Alex Call

RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA

9.6%

H 61·K 51

Home Lineup

San Francisco Giants

vs Tyler Glasnow

Willy Adames

RHB·3 HR / 103 PA·Brl 12.3%

vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 1 K · 9 PA

11.4%

H 55·K 69

Heliot Ramos

RHB·2 HR / 89 PA·Brl 16.7%

vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 0 HR · 2 K · 11 PA

RHB·2 HR / 77 PA·Brl 13.5%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA

11.3%

H 61·K 68

Christian Koss

RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.0%

H 62·K 66

Drew Gilbert

LHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 14.3%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

10.8%

H 63·K 64

Jerar Encarnacion

RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 5.0%

10.2%

H 62·K 66

Patrick Bailey

SHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 4.7%

vs SP: 3-for-11 · .273 · 1 HR · 3 K · 11 PA

10.1%

H 61·K 59

Rafael Devers

LHB·2 HR / 102 PA·Brl 9.5%

vs SP: 7-for-27 · .259 · 0 HR · 10 K · 30 PA

9.4%

H 61·K 69

Matt Chapman

RHB·1 HR / 102 PA·Brl 4.1%

vs SP: 4-for-17 · .235 · 1 HR · 7 K · 21 PA

9.4%

H 67·K 58

Jung Hoo Lee

LHB·1 HR / 93 PA·Brl 1.4%

vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 9 PA

9.0%

H 64·K 56

Luis Arraez

LHB·0 HR / 98 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 3-for-14 · .214 · 0 HR · 1 K · 14 PA

7.8%

H 62·K 52

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.