Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Arizona Diamondbacks
at Milwaukee Brewers
7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTAmerican Family Field, Milwaukeeretractable roof
The Headline
Ildemaro Vargas enters this game with a 15.2% model-estimated probability of homering at American Family Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor106
RHB HR factor103
Probable Starters
Away Starter
Starter not yet announced.
Home Starter · RHP
Chad Patrick
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.35
WHIP1.26
IP23.0
HR/90.80
K/94.3
xwOBA0.318
Barrel%9.3%
Hard-hit%41.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
vs Chad Patrick
Ildemaro Vargas
SHB·6 HR / 82 PA·Brl 7.2%
15.2%
H 73·K 48
Nolan Arenado
RHB·4 HR / 96 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
13.5%
H 71·K 54
Ketel Marte
SHB·4 HR / 114 PA·Brl 9.4%
13.5%
H 69·K 53
Alek Thomas
LHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.6%
H 69·K 44
Corbin Carroll
LHB·3 HR / 105 PA·Brl 11.5%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.2%
H 64·K 55
Jose Fernandez
RHB·3 HR / 78 PA·Brl 6.9%
11.7%
H 72·K 58
Tim Tawa
RHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 2.9%
11.6%
H 63·K 46
Adrian Del Castillo
LHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 5.9%
11.5%
H 61·K 54
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.7%
H 58·K 49
Jorge Barrosa
SHB·1 HR / 64 PA·Brl 7.7%
10.6%
H 63·K 57
James McCann
RHB·0 HR / 43 PA·Brl 6.9%
10.3%
H 60·K 56
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB·1 HR / 102 PA·Brl 2.7%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.3%
H 70·K 45
Home Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
Jake Bauers
LHB·5 HR / 95 PA·Brl 10.3%
—
Gary Sánchez
RHB·5 HR / 73 PA·Brl 16.3%
—
Brice Turang
LHB·4 HR / 116 PA·Brl 10.4%
—
William Contreras
RHB·2 HR / 110 PA·Brl 7.0%
—
Garrett Mitchell
LHB·1 HR / 87 PA·Brl 13.9%
—
Sal Frelick
LHB·1 HR / 98 PA·Brl 1.4%
—
Tyler Black
LHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Joey Ortiz
RHB·0 HR / 70 PA·Brl 4.2%
—
Greg Jones
SHB·0 HR / 16 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
David Hamilton
LHB·0 HR / 80 PA·Brl 3.8%
—
Brandon Lockridge
RHB·0 HR / 76 PA·Brl 2.1%
—
Luis Rengifo
SHB·0 HR / 85 PA·Brl 7.6%
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.