Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers
at St. Louis Cardinals
7:15 PM ET · 4:15 PM PTBusch Stadium, St. Louisopen roof
The Headline
Max Muncy enters this game with a 17.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Busch Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor94
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Roki Sasaki
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA6.35
WHIP1.81
IP22.2
HR/92.80
K/98.7
xwOBA0.379
Barrel%9.9%
Hard-hit%45.1%
Home Starter · RHP
Michael McGreevy
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA2.97
WHIP0.90
IP33.1
HR/91.40
K/95.7
xwOBA0.382
Barrel%12.9%
Hard-hit%35.6%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
Max Muncy
LHB·9 HR / 119 PA·Brl 17.8%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
17.0%
H 67·K 42
Dalton Rushing
LHB·7 HR / 52 PA·Brl 15.2%
16.6%
H 64·K 53
Shohei Ohtani
LHB·6 HR / 144 PA·Brl 21.5%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.0%
H 71·K 51
Will Smith
RHB·3 HR / 103 PA·Brl 12.2%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.9%
H 67·K 46
Teoscar Hernández
RHB·4 HR / 113 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.9%
H 65·K 56
Kyle Tucker
LHB·3 HR / 137 PA·Brl 8.0%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 0 HR · 0 K · 8 PA
11.8%
H 64·K 47
Miguel Rojas
RHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 7.7%
11.1%
H 66·K 45
Andy Pages
RHB·5 HR / 127 PA·Brl 5.8%
10.9%
H 67·K 49
Hyeseong Kim
LHB·1 HR / 64 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.8%
H 66·K 47
Freddie Freeman
LHB·3 HR / 132 PA·Brl 13.7%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.6%
H 63·K 42
Santiago Espinal
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.0%
H 64·K 51
Alex Call
RHB·0 HR / 37 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.0%
H 65·K 42
Home Lineup
St. Louis Cardinals
vs Roki Sasaki
JJ Wetherholt
LHB·7 HR / 148 PA·Brl 9.6%
16.1%
H 66·K 51
Nathan Church
LHB·5 HR / 96 PA·Brl 13.8%
15.6%
H 59·K 55
Jordan Walker
RHB·9 HR / 134 PA·Brl 21.1%
15.0%
H 72·K 63
Alec Burleson
LHB·5 HR / 139 PA·Brl 11.8%
14.8%
H 71·K 53
Nolan Gorman
LHB·5 HR / 121 PA·Brl 5.5%
14.6%
H 62·K 55
Iván Herrera
RHB·4 HR / 148 PA·Brl 9.1%
13.9%
H 69·K 53
Pedro Pagés
RHB·3 HR / 76 PA·Brl 7.8%
13.6%
H 70·K 55
José Fermín
RHB·1 HR / 34 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.4%
H 65·K 53
Ramón Urías
RHB·2 HR / 63 PA·Brl 9.5%
11.6%
H 58·K 46
Yohel Pozo
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.6%
H 64·K 55
Victor Scott II
LHB·1 HR / 96 PA·Brl 1.7%
11.1%
H 57·K 63
Masyn Winn
RHB·1 HR / 117 PA·Brl 2.7%
10.5%
H 65·K 58
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.