Matchup · Wednesday, May 6, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers
at Houston Astros
2:10 PM ET · 11:10 AM PTDaikin Park, Houstonretractable roof
The Headline
Yordan Alvarez enters this game with a 17.2% model-estimated probability of homering at Daikin Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor101
RHB HR factor106
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Tyler Glasnow
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.56
WHIP0.83
IP38.2
HR/90.90
K/910.9
xwOBA0.249
Barrel%7.1%
Hard-hit%38.1%
Home Starter · RHP
Lance McCullers Jr.
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA6.32
WHIP1.40
IP31.1
HR/91.20
K/99.5
xwOBA0.330
Barrel%8.6%
Hard-hit%48.1%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dalton Rushing
LHB·7 HR / 60 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
17.1%
H 65·K 62
Max Muncy
LHB·9 HR / 136 PA·Brl 17.1%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
16.2%
H 66·K 47
Shohei Ohtani
LHB·6 HR / 158 PA·Brl 18.7%
vs SP: 5-for-23 · .217 · 0 HR · 8 K · 30 PA
13.2%
H 58·K 56
Will Smith
RHB·3 HR / 116 PA·Brl 14.6%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
12.7%
H 64·K 49
Kyle Tucker
LHB·4 HR / 155 PA·Brl 7.7%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 1 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.4%
H 64·K 50
Miguel Rojas
RHB·1 HR / 60 PA·Brl 6.8%
12.0%
H 64·K 47
Alex Freeland
SHB·2 HR / 100 PA·Brl 9.7%
11.9%
H 63·K 56
Teoscar Hernández
RHB·4 HR / 131 PA·Brl 10.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.6%
H 64·K 57
Andy Pages
RHB·5 HR / 144 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.5%
H 71·K 50
Santiago Espinal
RHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.7%
H 63·K 56
Freddie Freeman
LHB·3 HR / 150 PA·Brl 12.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.7%
H 70·K 50
Alex Call
RHB·0 HR / 40 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.6%
H 64·K 47
Home Lineup
Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez
LHB·12 HR / 166 PA·Brl 17.9%
17.2%
H 67·K 49
Christian Walker
RHB·9 HR / 151 PA·Brl 13.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
17.0%
H 69·K 56
Braden Shewmake
LHB·2 HR / 14 PA·Brl 12.5%
15.0%
H 61·K 58
Brice Matthews
RHB·3 HR / 81 PA·Brl 9.1%
14.1%
H 58·K 61
Zach Cole
LHB·1 HR / 7 PA·Brl 50.0%
13.8%
H 61·K 58
Zach Dezenzo
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.4%
H 61·K 58
Isaac Paredes
RHB·3 HR / 133 PA·Brl 3.3%
12.3%
H 67·K 49
Nick Allen
RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.1%
H 61·K 58
Daniel Johnson
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.0%
H 61·K 58
Joey Loperfido
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.0%
H 61·K 58
Cam Smith
RHB·4 HR / 144 PA·Brl 15.5%
12.0%
H 61·K 66
Carlos Correa
RHB·3 HR / 141 PA·Brl 10.3%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 4 K · 6 PA
11.9%
H 64·K 58
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.