Matchup · Friday, April 17, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers
at Colorado Rockies
8:40 PM ET · 5:40 PM PTCoors Field, Denveropen roof
The Headline
Shohei Ohtani enters this game with a 20.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Coors Field, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor118
RHB HR factor122
Altitude5,200 ft
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Tyler Glasnow
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.24
WHIP0.84
IP25.0
HR/90.70
K/910.4
xwOBA0.259
Barrel%4.4%
Hard-hit%33.3%
Home Starter · RHP
Tomoyuki Sugano
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA3.92
WHIP1.16
IP20.2
HR/92.20
K/96.5
xwOBA0.356
Barrel%16.7%
Hard-hit%45.8%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani
LHB·5 HR / 87 PA·Brl 23.9%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 2 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
20.0%
Max Muncy
LHB·6 HR / 71 PA·Brl 16.7%
18.9%
Teoscar Hernández
RHB·4 HR / 67 PA·Brl 15.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
17.9%
Andy Pages
RHB·5 HR / 75 PA·Brl 10.4%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
16.7%
Freddie Freeman
LHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 15.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
16.3%
Kyle Tucker
LHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
15.3%
Will Smith
RHB·2 HR / 68 PA·Brl 10.9%
14.3%
Hyeseong Kim
LHB·1 HR / 27 PA·Brl 18.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.4%
Alex Freeland
SHB·1 HR / 55 PA·Brl 6.5%
11.7%
Dalton Rushing
LHB·4 HR / 18 PA·Brl 33.3%
—
Miguel Rojas
RHB·0 HR / 32 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
—
Santiago Espinal
RHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Home Lineup
Colorado Rockies
Mickey Moniak
LHB·5 HR / 49 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 6 K · 8 PA
18.6%
Edouard Julien
LHB·1 HR / 52 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
14.2%
Troy Johnston
LHB·2 HR / 60 PA·Brl 4.9%
13.8%
TJ Rumfield
LHB·2 HR / 75 PA·Brl 7.7%
13.1%
Brett Sullivan
LHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.3%
Brenton Doyle
RHB·1 HR / 62 PA·Brl 3.1%
12.2%
Ezequiel Tovar
RHB·1 HR / 80 PA·Brl 9.6%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.6%
Jake McCarthy
LHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 6.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.2%
Kyle Karros
RHB·0 HR / 64 PA·Brl 5.4%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
9.9%
Hunter Goodman
RHB·5 HR / 74 PA·Brl 13.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
—
Jordan Beck
RHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 3.4%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
—
Willi Castro
SHB·1 HR / 61 PA·Brl 9.4%
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.