Matchup · Sunday, April 19, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers
at Colorado Rockies
3:10 PM ET · 12:10 PM PTCoors Field, Denveropen roof
The Headline
Max Muncy enters this game with a 18.4% model-estimated probability of homering at Coors Field, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor118
RHB HR factor122
Altitude5,200 ft
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Roki Sasaki
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA6.23
WHIP1.85
IP13.0
HR/92.10
K/910.4
xwOBA0.362
Barrel%10.5%
Hard-hit%36.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Michael Lorenzen
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA8.10
WHIP2.22
IP16.2
HR/92.20
K/97.0
xwOBA0.381
Barrel%6.9%
Hard-hit%54.2%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
Max Muncy
LHB·6 HR / 75 PA·Brl 20.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
18.4%
Dalton Rushing
LHB·5 HR / 22 PA·Brl 33.3%
17.9%
Shohei Ohtani
LHB·5 HR / 92 PA·Brl 24.0%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 1 K · 10 PA
17.2%
Andy Pages
RHB·5 HR / 79 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 1 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
16.9%
Teoscar Hernández
RHB·4 HR / 72 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
16.5%
Freddie Freeman
LHB·3 HR / 89 PA·Brl 16.2%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
15.0%
Kyle Tucker
LHB·3 HR / 90 PA·Brl 7.4%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
13.8%
Hyeseong Kim
LHB·1 HR / 28 PA·Brl 14.3%
13.8%
Will Smith
RHB·2 HR / 70 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
13.1%
Alex Call
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.0%
Santiago Espinal
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
12.7%
Alex Freeland
SHB·1 HR / 57 PA·Brl 8.6%
12.5%
Home Lineup
Colorado Rockies
vs Roki Sasaki
Mickey Moniak
LHB·5 HR / 54 PA·Brl 14.7%
18.1%
Hunter Goodman
RHB·5 HR / 78 PA·Brl 13.9%
17.3%
Jordan Beck
RHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 3.4%
13.6%
Edouard Julien
LHB·1 HR / 57 PA·Brl 9.1%
13.5%
Brenton Doyle
RHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 2.9%
13.3%
Troy Johnston
LHB·2 HR / 65 PA·Brl 4.7%
13.3%
TJ Rumfield
LHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 7.4%
13.0%
Willi Castro
SHB·1 HR / 61 PA·Brl 9.4%
13.0%
Brett Sullivan
LHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.9%
Ezequiel Tovar
RHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 11.1%
12.1%
Tyler Freeman
RHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.0%
Jake McCarthy
LHB·0 HR / 46 PA·Brl 6.5%
11.8%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.