Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026
Los Angeles Angels
at Kansas City Royals
7:20 PM ET · 4:20 PM PTKauffman Stadium, Kansas Cityopen roof
The Headline
Mike Trout enters this game with a 15.4% model-estimated probability of homering at Kauffman Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor97
RHB HR factor98
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Reid Detmers
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA4.08
WHIP1.08
IP28.2
HR/90.60
K/99.7
xwOBA0.266
Barrel%6.4%
Hard-hit%35.9%
Home Starter · RHP
Seth Lugo
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA1.15
WHIP0.93
IP31.1
HR/90.00
K/98.0
xwOBA0.316
Barrel%9.0%
Hard-hit%39.7%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Los Angeles Angels
vs Seth Lugo
Mike Trout
RHB·8 HR / 124 PA·Brl 24.6%
15.4%
H 63·K 55
Jorge Soler
RHB·5 HR / 102 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
13.3%
H 58·K 69
Oswald Peraza
RHB·4 HR / 83 PA·Brl 11.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.6%
H 64·K 56
Yoán Moncada
SHB·3 HR / 87 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.8%
H 60·K 72
Josh Lowe
LHB·3 HR / 73 PA·Brl 6.7%
11.6%
H 61·K 61
Zach Neto
RHB·5 HR / 130 PA·Brl 11.3%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
11.3%
H 58·K 68
Jo Adell
RHB·4 HR / 121 PA·Brl 4.6%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 4 K · 9 PA
11.3%
H 59·K 59
Travis d'Arnaud
RHB·0 HR / 19 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
10.4%
H 57·K 63
Logan O'Hoppe
RHB·1 HR / 93 PA·Brl 9.3%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
10.3%
H 59·K 68
Adam Frazier
LHB·1 HR / 49 PA·Brl 3.8%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.3%
H 63·K 72
Nolan Schanuel
LHB·3 HR / 111 PA·Brl 2.4%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.0%
H 61·K 59
Bryce Teodosio
RHB·0 HR / 32 PA·Brl 5.9%
9.7%
H 62·K 63
Home Lineup
Kansas City Royals
vs Reid Detmers
Carter Jensen
LHB·6 HR / 89 PA·Brl 13.5%
14.3%
H 69·K 66
Vinnie Pasquantino
LHB·3 HR / 115 PA·Brl 8.1%
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 2 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
12.3%
H 55·K 63
Salvador Perez
RHB·4 HR / 108 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
11.9%
H 63·K 75
Tyler Tolbert
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 65
Jonathan India
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 65
Kyle Isbel
LHB·3 HR / 76 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.9%
H 66·K 70
Elias Díaz
RHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 16.7%
10.9%
H 63·K 65
Michael Massey
LHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
10.8%
H 68·K 68
Jac Caglianone
LHB·1 HR / 88 PA·Brl 16.0%
10.8%
H 60·K 75
Nick Loftin
RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 6.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.4%
H 63·K 65
Starling Marte
RHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.4%
H 62·K 65
Maikel Garcia
RHB·2 HR / 110 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.4%
H 64·K 66
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.