Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
New York Mets
at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 PM ET · 6:38 PM PTAngel Stadium, Anaheimopen roof
The Headline
Mike Trout enters this game with a 16.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Angel Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor96
RHB HR factor97
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Nolan McLean
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.55
WHIP0.85
IP35.1
HR/90.50
K/911.5
xwOBA0.242
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%31.6%
Home Starter · LHP
Reid Detmers
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA4.28
WHIP1.10
IP33.2
HR/90.80
K/99.6
xwOBA0.274
Barrel%6.5%
Hard-hit%38.7%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
New York Mets
vs Reid Detmers
Juan Soto
LHB·3 HR / 72 PA·Brl 26.0%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
13.9%
H 71·K 48
MJ Melendez
LHB·2 HR / 35 PA·Brl 16.7%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 1 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
12.8%
H 63·K 64
Francisco Lindor
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.7%
H 63·K 56
Ronny Mauricio
SHB·1 HR / 29 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.7%
H 58·K 56
Luis Robert Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 7 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 56
Jorge Polanco
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 56
Eric Wagaman
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 56
Tommy Pham
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 56
Hayden Senger
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.5%
H 63·K 56
Francisco Alvarez
RHB·4 HR / 102 PA·Brl 15.6%
11.1%
H 57·K 59
Tyrone Taylor
RHB·2 HR / 56 PA·Brl 4.8%
11.1%
H 62·K 52
Mark Vientos
RHB·2 HR / 83 PA·Brl 3.4%
10.9%
H 62·K 58
Home Lineup
Los Angeles Angels
vs Nolan McLean
Mike Trout
RHB·10 HR / 148 PA·Brl 25.3%
16.7%
H 65·K 60
Jorge Soler
RHB·7 HR / 125 PA·Brl 11.9%
13.7%
H 62·K 60
Oswald Peraza
RHB·4 HR / 93 PA·Brl 10.2%
12.1%
H 62·K 61
Yoán Moncada
SHB·3 HR / 103 PA·Brl 10.2%
12.0%
H 54·K 66
Josh Lowe
LHB·4 HR / 87 PA·Brl 9.1%
12.0%
H 60·K 57
Jo Adell
RHB·4 HR / 142 PA·Brl 5.8%
11.6%
H 59·K 63
Logan O'Hoppe
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.2%
H 61·K 58
Vaughn Grissom
RHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 8.1%
10.7%
H 68·K 49
Zach Neto
RHB·5 HR / 154 PA·Brl 11.0%
10.4%
H 59·K 66
Adam Frazier
LHB·1 HR / 64 PA·Brl 2.7%
10.1%
H 61·K 64
Travis d'Arnaud
RHB·0 HR / 32 PA·Brl 15.0%
9.9%
H 60·K 53
Nolan Schanuel
LHB·3 HR / 129 PA·Brl 2.1%
9.6%
H 66·K 51
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.