Matchup · Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Cincinnati Reds
at Chicago Cubs

7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTWrigley Field, Chicagoopen roof

The Headline

Elly De La Cruz enters this game with a 18.2% model-estimated probability of homering at Wrigley Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor104

RHB HR factor103

Probable Starters

Away Starter · LHP

Andrew Abbott

HR VulnerabilityAverage

Contact Quality AllowedAbove average

ERA5.97

WHIP1.67

IP34.2

HR/91.30

K/96.2

xwOBA0.356

Barrel%7.6%

Hard-hit%37.0%

Home Starter · RHP

Jameson Taillon

HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone

Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled

ERA4.41

WHIP1.15

IP34.2

HR/92.30

K/98.1

xwOBA0.321

Barrel%12.5%

Hard-hit%33.3%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Cincinnati Reds

vs Jameson Taillon

Elly De La Cruz

SHB·10 HR / 154 PA·Brl 15.6%

vs SP: 5-for-14 · .357 · 2 HR · 6 K · 15 PA

18.2%

H 67·K 57

Nathaniel Lowe

LHB·5 HR / 73 PA·Brl 14.6%

vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA

18.1%

H 64·K 54

JJ Bleday

LHB·3 HR / 25 PA·Brl 7.7%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

18.1%

H 65·K 54

Sal Stewart

RHB·9 HR / 151 PA·Brl 18.4%

16.9%

H 59·K 48

Will Benson

LHB·2 HR / 61 PA·Brl 12.5%

vs SP: 4-for-13 · .308 · 1 HR · 1 K · 14 PA

16.0%

H 63·K 59

Spencer Steer

RHB·5 HR / 124 PA·Brl 17.1%

vs SP: 4-for-18 · .222 · 1 HR · 4 K · 18 PA

vs SP: 9-for-34 · .265 · 5 HR · 9 K · 40 PA

13.8%

H 63·K 54

Ke'Bryan Hayes

RHB·2 HR / 94 PA·Brl 11.4%

vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 3 K · 8 PA

RHB·1 HR / 55 PA·Brl 12.1%

13.6%

H 64·K 55

Matt McLain

RHB·2 HR / 143 PA·Brl 8.1%

vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 0 HR · 2 K · 10 PA

12.9%

H 56·K 59

Tyler Stephenson

RHB·2 HR / 97 PA·Brl 14.5%

vs SP: 5-for-12 · .417 · 1 HR · 0 K · 12 PA

12.4%

H 65·K 61

Home Lineup

Chicago Cubs

vs Andrew Abbott

Seiya Suzuki

RHB·6 HR / 96 PA·Brl 8.9%

vs SP: 3-for-13 · .231 · 1 HR · 1 K · 16 PA

17.8%

H 71·K 53

Moisés Ballesteros

LHB·6 HR / 96 PA·Brl 11.8%

16.5%

H 62·K 43

Ian Happ

SHB·8 HR / 151 PA·Brl 15.0%

vs SP: 2-for-16 · .125 · 0 HR · 3 K · 20 PA

14.5%

H 68·K 53

Dansby Swanson

RHB·6 HR / 137 PA·Brl 12.2%

vs SP: 5-for-14 · .357 · 2 HR · 2 K · 18 PA

14.1%

H 62·K 48

Pete Crow-Armstrong

LHB·3 HR / 144 PA·Brl 7.9%

vs SP: 0-for-9 · .000 · 0 HR · 5 K · 9 PA

12.8%

H 63·K 55

Michael Conforto

LHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 9.5%

vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA

12.8%

H 66·K 48

Carson Kelly

RHB·2 HR / 100 PA·Brl 10.3%

vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA

12.5%

H 69·K 44

Matt Shaw

RHB·3 HR / 86 PA·Brl 6.2%

vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA

12.5%

H 66·K 47

Michael Busch

LHB·2 HR / 149 PA·Brl 8.6%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA

12.2%

H 66·K 54

Miguel Amaya

RHB·2 HR / 62 PA·Brl 7.9%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

12.1%

H 62·K 54

Nico Hoerner

RHB·4 HR / 157 PA·Brl 2.5%

vs SP: 4-for-15 · .267 · 0 HR · 1 K · 16 PA

11.4%

H 68·K 43

Alex Bregman

RHB·3 HR / 160 PA·Brl 7.1%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

10.9%

H 61·K 43

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.