Matchup · Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Cincinnati Reds
at Chicago Cubs

7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTWrigley Field, Chicagoopen roof

The Headline

Seiya Suzuki enters this game with a 18.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Wrigley Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor104

RHB HR factor103

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Brady Singer

HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone

Contact Quality AllowedLeague average

ERA5.57

WHIP1.73

IP32.1

HR/92.00

K/95.6

xwOBA0.382

Barrel%9.8%

Hard-hit%45.9%

Home Starter · RHP

Colin Rea

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedLeague average

ERA4.41

WHIP1.32

IP32.2

HR/90.80

K/98.3

xwOBA0.331

Barrel%8.8%

Hard-hit%50.0%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Cincinnati Reds

vs Colin Rea

Nathaniel Lowe

LHB·6 HR / 77 PA·Brl 14.0%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

16.7%

H 64·K 54

JJ Bleday

LHB·4 HR / 29 PA·Brl 12.5%

vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 4 PA

16.6%

H 66·K 54

Elly De La Cruz

SHB·10 HR / 159 PA·Brl 15.1%

vs SP: 7-for-19 · .368 · 2 HR · 5 K · 20 PA

16.1%

H 64·K 56

Sal Stewart

RHB·9 HR / 155 PA·Brl 17.9%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 3 PA

14.9%

H 60·K 52

Will Benson

LHB·2 HR / 61 PA·Brl 12.1%

vs SP: 8-for-18 · .444 · 1 HR · 4 K · 19 PA

14.2%

H 63·K 60

Spencer Steer

RHB·5 HR / 128 PA·Brl 16.3%

vs SP: 6-for-19 · .316 · 1 HR · 5 K · 22 PA

vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 2 K · 10 PA

RHB·2 HR / 98 PA·Brl 12.5%

vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA

12.2%

H 56·K 57

Dane Myers

RHB·1 HR / 56 PA·Brl 11.8%

12.1%

H 65·K 55

Matt McLain

RHB·2 HR / 147 PA·Brl 8.1%

vs SP: 3-for-14 · .214 · 0 HR · 6 K · 16 PA

11.4%

H 57·K 60

Tyler Stephenson

RHB·2 HR / 101 PA·Brl 14.0%

vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 1 HR · 5 K · 11 PA

10.9%

H 65·K 61

Home Lineup

Chicago Cubs

vs Brady Singer

Seiya Suzuki

RHB·6 HR / 101 PA·Brl 10.2%

vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA

18.9%

H 67·K 52

Moisés Ballesteros

LHB·6 HR / 97 PA·Brl 12.7%

16.4%

H 62·K 42

Ian Happ

SHB·8 HR / 156 PA·Brl 14.8%

vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA

15.3%

H 66·K 56

Dansby Swanson

RHB·6 HR / 142 PA·Brl 11.8%

vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA

14.8%

H 60·K 45

Michael Busch

LHB·3 HR / 154 PA·Brl 8.3%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA

14.1%

H 71·K 53

Pete Crow-Armstrong

LHB·3 HR / 148 PA·Brl 8.7%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

13.5%

H 63·K 55

Michael Conforto

LHB·1 HR / 40 PA·Brl 9.1%

vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA

13.5%

H 67·K 48

Carson Kelly

RHB·2 HR / 100 PA·Brl 10.0%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

13.3%

H 70·K 44

Matt Shaw

RHB·3 HR / 88 PA·Brl 6.2%

13.3%

H 67·K 47

Miguel Amaya

RHB·2 HR / 66 PA·Brl 7.9%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

12.7%

H 63·K 53

Alex Bregman

RHB·3 HR / 165 PA·Brl 6.9%

vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

11.4%

H 61·K 42

Nico Hoerner

RHB·4 HR / 162 PA·Brl 2.4%

vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA

11.3%

H 71·K 42

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.