Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Los Angeles Angels
at Chicago White Sox
7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTRate Field, Chicagoopen roof
The Headline
Mike Trout enters this game with a 17.5% model-estimated probability of homering at Rate Field, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor108
RHB HR factor111
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
José Soriano
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA0.24
WHIP0.82
IP37.2
HR/90.20
K/910.3
xwOBA0.265
Barrel%8.3%
Hard-hit%29.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Davis Martin
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.01
WHIP1.02
IP31.1
HR/90.60
K/97.5
xwOBA0.340
Barrel%7.1%
Hard-hit%51.2%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Los Angeles Angels
vs Davis Martin
Mike Trout
RHB·9 HR / 135 PA·Brl 26.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
17.5%
H 65·K 54
Jorge Soler
RHB·6 HR / 113 PA·Brl 12.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
15.6%
H 63·K 66
Oswald Peraza
RHB·4 HR / 89 PA·Brl 10.9%
14.0%
H 65·K 60
Jo Adell
RHB·4 HR / 131 PA·Brl 6.5%
13.6%
H 63·K 60
Yoán Moncada
SHB·3 HR / 93 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.2%
H 62·K 65
Josh Lowe
LHB·3 HR / 77 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.8%
H 62·K 59
Logan O'Hoppe
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
12.3%
H 63·K 52
Zach Neto
RHB·5 HR / 141 PA·Brl 10.4%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
11.5%
H 63·K 60
Adam Frazier
LHB·1 HR / 56 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.2%
H 63·K 61
Travis d'Arnaud
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.1%
H 63·K 53
Bryce Teodosio
RHB·0 HR / 36 PA·Brl 5.9%
10.5%
H 63·K 53
Nolan Schanuel
LHB·3 HR / 121 PA·Brl 2.3%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
10.4%
H 62·K 43
Home Lineup
Chicago White Sox
vs José Soriano
Munetaka Murakami
LHB·12 HR / 126 PA·Brl 23.7%
16.6%
H 58·K 75
Colson Montgomery
LHB·7 HR / 119 PA·Brl 15.9%
15.3%
H 62·K 71
Miguel Vargas
RHB·6 HR / 125 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
14.3%
H 63·K 56
Everson Pereira
RHB·3 HR / 69 PA·Brl 12.5%
13.0%
H 58·K 68
Derek Hill
RHB·1 HR / 40 PA·Brl 4.5%
11.9%
H 61·K 62
Austin Hays
RHB·1 HR / 33 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.8%
H 60·K 64
Andrew Benintendi
LHB·2 HR / 92 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.7%
H 59·K 63
Sam Antonacci
LHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 10.3%
11.5%
H 62·K 48
Reese McGuire
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
11.5%
H 61·K 57
Tristan Peters
LHB·0 HR / 69 PA·Brl 4.7%
9.0%
H 62·K 55
Luisangel Acuña
RHB·0 HR / 75 PA·Brl 3.4%
9.0%
H 60·K 48
Edgar Quero
SHB·0 HR / 79 PA·Brl 0.0%
8.8%
H 59·K 54
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.