Matchup · Monday, May 4, 2026

Chicago White Sox
at Los Angeles Angels

9:38 PM ET · 6:38 PM PTAngel Stadium, Anaheimopen roof

The Headline

Munetaka Murakami enters this game with a 16.6% model-estimated probability of homering at Angel Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor96

RHB HR factor97

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Davis Martin

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedAbove average

ERA1.95

WHIP1.08

IP37.0

HR/90.50

K/98.0

xwOBA0.335

Barrel%6.9%

Hard-hit%48.5%

Home Starter · RHP

José Soriano

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedLeague average

ERA0.84

WHIP0.94

IP42.2

HR/90.60

K/910.3

xwOBA0.281

Barrel%9.2%

Hard-hit%33.7%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Chicago White Sox

vs José Soriano

Munetaka Murakami

LHB·13 HR / 149 PA·Brl 22.9%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 3 PA

16.6%

H 56·K 65

Colson Montgomery

LHB·9 HR / 140 PA·Brl 15.2%

vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 1 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

15.9%

H 60·K 57

Drew Romo

SHB·3 HR / 16 PA·Brl 33.3%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

15.3%

H 62·K 57

Miguel Vargas

RHB·6 HR / 145 PA·Brl 11.8%

vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 2 K · 7 PA

13.7%

H 62·K 48

Derek Hill

RHB·2 HR / 44 PA·Brl 4.2%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA

11.0%

H 61·K 57

Andrew Benintendi

LHB·2 HR / 108 PA·Brl 11.1%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA

11.0%

H 60·K 64

Jarred Kelenic

LHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 33.3%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

10.8%

H 62·K 57

Austin Hays

RHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 3.3%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

10.7%

H 64·K 62

Sam Antonacci

LHB·1 HR / 61 PA·Brl 11.1%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

10.3%

H 67·K 48

Luisangel Acuña

RHB·0 HR / 86 PA·Brl 3.2%

vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

8.4%

H 60·K 56

Home Lineup

Los Angeles Angels

vs Davis Martin

Mike Trout

RHB·10 HR / 157 PA·Brl 24.4%

vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA

15.2%

H 68·K 58

Jorge Soler

RHB·7 HR / 134 PA·Brl 12.3%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA

13.6%

H 64·K 58

Josh Lowe

LHB·4 HR / 96 PA·Brl 8.3%

vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA

11.8%

H 59·K 54

Yoán Moncada

SHB·3 HR / 105 PA·Brl 9.8%

vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA

11.2%

H 61·K 61

Oswald Peraza

RHB·4 HR / 102 PA·Brl 9.2%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA

11.1%

H 63·K 53

Jo Adell

RHB·4 HR / 151 PA·Brl 5.6%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

10.8%

H 67·K 57

Vaughn Grissom

RHB·1 HR / 57 PA·Brl 7.1%

10.5%

H 59·K 45

Zach Neto

RHB·5 HR / 163 PA·Brl 10.7%

vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA

10.1%

H 56·K 61

Travis d'Arnaud

RHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 12.5%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

9.7%

H 62·K 50

Bryce Teodosio

RHB·0 HR / 36 PA·Brl 10.5%

9.7%

H 63·K 54

Nolan Schanuel

LHB·3 HR / 138 PA·Brl 1.9%

vs SP: 4-for-9 · .444 · 0 HR · 1 K · 10 PA

9.3%

H 67·K 46

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.