Matchup · Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Chicago White Sox
at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 PM ET · 6:38 PM PTAngel Stadium, Anaheimopen roof
The Headline
Munetaka Murakami enters this game with a 18.1% model-estimated probability of homering at Angel Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor96
RHB HR factor97
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Erick Fedde
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA3.24
WHIP1.05
IP33.1
HR/91.40
K/95.9
xwOBA0.291
Barrel%8.2%
Hard-hit%36.7%
Home Starter · LHP
Sam Aldegheri
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA5.40
WHIP1.80
IP1.2
HR/95.40
K/910.8
xwOBA0.361
Barrel%20.0%
Hard-hit%20.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Chicago White Sox
Munetaka Murakami
LHB·14 HR / 154 PA·Brl 22.2%
18.1%
H 62·K 62
Drew Romo
SHB·3 HR / 21 PA·Brl 42.9%
17.9%
H 64·K 54
Colson Montgomery
LHB·9 HR / 145 PA·Brl 15.0%
17.3%
H 58·K 55
Miguel Vargas
RHB·7 HR / 150 PA·Brl 11.7%
14.7%
H 65·K 48
Derek Hill
RHB·2 HR / 45 PA·Brl 8.0%
14.2%
H 64·K 54
Andrew Benintendi
LHB·2 HR / 113 PA·Brl 12.5%
12.2%
H 65·K 61
Everson Pereira
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.1%
H 64·K 54
Austin Hays
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.1%
H 64·K 54
Reese McGuire
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.0%
H 64·K 54
Sam Antonacci
LHB·1 HR / 66 PA·Brl 13.0%
11.7%
H 70·K 46
Jarred Kelenic
LHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 20.0%
11.5%
H 64·K 54
Randal Grichuk
RHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 18.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.9%
H 63·K 60
Home Lineup
Los Angeles Angels
vs Erick Fedde
Mike Trout
RHB·10 HR / 161 PA·Brl 24.1%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
16.0%
H 65·K 57
Jorge Soler
RHB·7 HR / 138 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 1 HR · 2 K · 11 PA
15.8%
H 59·K 56
Josh Lowe
LHB·4 HR / 99 PA·Brl 7.9%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
12.7%
H 55·K 52
Logan O'Hoppe
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.1%
H 64·K 51
Jo Adell
RHB·4 HR / 154 PA·Brl 5.4%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.6%
H 68·K 54
Travis d'Arnaud
RHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 3-for-12 · .250 · 1 HR · 1 K · 13 PA
11.2%
H 61·K 46
Vaughn Grissom
RHB·1 HR / 57 PA·Brl 6.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.2%
H 59·K 43
Yoán Moncada
SHB·3 HR / 108 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.2%
H 61·K 59
Oswald Peraza
RHB·4 HR / 103 PA·Brl 9.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.1%
H 64·K 56
Zach Neto
RHB·5 HR / 167 PA·Brl 10.3%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.0%
H 57·K 59
Bryce Teodosio
RHB·0 HR / 36 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.4%
H 63·K 51
Nolan Schanuel
LHB·3 HR / 142 PA·Brl 1.9%
10.3%
H 68·K 46
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.