Matchup · Friday, April 24, 2026
Chicago Cubs
at Los Angeles Dodgers
10:15 PM ET · 7:15 PM PTUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angelesopen roof
The Headline
Max Muncy enters this game with a 18.0% model-estimated probability of homering at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor102
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Jameson Taillon
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA3.97
WHIP1.28
IP22.2
HR/92.40
K/98.3
xwOBA0.334
Barrel%12.5%
Hard-hit%32.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Emmet Sheehan
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA5.85
WHIP1.40
IP20.0
HR/91.80
K/98.1
xwOBA0.344
Barrel%8.3%
Hard-hit%38.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Chicago Cubs
Dansby Swanson
RHB·5 HR / 105 PA·Brl 14.3%
15.6%
H 57·K 57
Moisés Ballesteros
LHB·3 HR / 57 PA·Brl 12.5%
15.1%
H 66·K 53
Ian Happ
SHB·7 HR / 108 PA·Brl 16.1%
15.1%
H 67·K 63
Seiya Suzuki
RHB·3 HR / 58 PA·Brl 6.7%
13.9%
H 64·K 65
Nico Hoerner
RHB·4 HR / 118 PA·Brl 3.4%
13.6%
H 67·K 53
Carson Kelly
RHB·2 HR / 75 PA·Brl 13.0%
13.5%
H 67·K 59
Matt Shaw
RHB·2 HR / 65 PA·Brl 8.5%
13.4%
H 65·K 65
Michael Busch
LHB·2 HR / 103 PA·Brl 4.5%
11.9%
H 62·K 65
Michael Conforto
LHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
11.6%
H 64·K 70
Pete Crow-Armstrong
LHB·1 HR / 103 PA·Brl 6.0%
11.6%
H 67·K 67
Miguel Amaya
RHB·1 HR / 51 PA·Brl 3.4%
11.2%
H 58·K 66
Alex Bregman
RHB·2 HR / 118 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
10.6%
H 70·K 54
Home Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
Max Muncy
LHB·8 HR / 97 PA·Brl 16.4%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
18.0%
H 71·K 69
Dalton Rushing
LHB·7 HR / 35 PA·Brl 23.8%
17.7%
H 68·K 66
Shohei Ohtani
LHB·5 HR / 116 PA·Brl 23.1%
vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 2 HR · 2 K · 13 PA
16.2%
H 64·K 64
Teoscar Hernández
RHB·4 HR / 89 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 5-for-18 · .278 · 2 HR · 4 K · 19 PA
15.4%
H 59·K 69
Andy Pages
RHB·5 HR / 98 PA·Brl 8.1%
14.1%
H 61·K 70
Kyle Tucker
LHB·3 HR / 107 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 4-for-10 · .400 · 1 HR · 0 K · 11 PA
13.6%
H 61·K 63
Freddie Freeman
LHB·3 HR / 101 PA·Brl 16.9%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 3 K · 7 PA
13.1%
H 72·K 53
Hyeseong Kim
LHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 9.1%
12.7%
H 64·K 65
Miguel Rojas
RHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
12.3%
H 65·K 55
Will Smith
RHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 9.7%
11.9%
H 59·K 57
Santiago Espinal
RHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 3-for-17 · .176 · 0 HR · 6 K · 18 PA
11.6%
H 64·K 63
Alex Call
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
11.5%
H 62·K 53
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.