Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026
Chicago Cubs
at Los Angeles Dodgers
7:15 PM ET · 4:15 PM PTUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angelesopen roof
The Headline
Max Muncy enters this game with a 16.7% model-estimated probability of homering at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor102
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Colin Rea
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.00
WHIP1.04
IP24.0
HR/90.80
K/97.5
xwOBA0.294
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%40.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Roki Sasaki
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA6.11
WHIP1.87
IP17.2
HR/92.00
K/98.7
xwOBA0.371
Barrel%9.1%
Hard-hit%43.6%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Chicago Cubs
vs Roki Sasaki
Dansby Swanson
RHB·6 HR / 109 PA·Brl 12.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
16.2%
H 64·K 56
Ian Happ
SHB·7 HR / 112 PA·Brl 16.4%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
15.2%
H 65·K 64
Seiya Suzuki
RHB·3 HR / 62 PA·Brl 8.8%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
15.2%
H 70·K 65
Moisés Ballesteros
LHB·3 HR / 61 PA·Brl 14.3%
15.0%
H 66·K 55
Matt Shaw
RHB·2 HR / 65 PA·Brl 8.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
13.2%
H 65·K 66
Carson Kelly
RHB·2 HR / 79 PA·Brl 13.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.2%
H 67·K 58
Nico Hoerner
RHB·4 HR / 123 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.1%
H 63·K 55
Michael Busch
LHB·2 HR / 108 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
13.0%
H 67·K 70
Michael Conforto
LHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 7.1%
11.6%
H 64·K 72
Miguel Amaya
RHB·1 HR / 51 PA·Brl 3.2%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.2%
H 58·K 69
Alex Bregman
RHB·3 HR / 123 PA·Brl 6.8%
10.9%
H 70·K 56
Pete Crow-Armstrong
LHB·1 HR / 107 PA·Brl 6.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.8%
H 67·K 72
Home Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
vs Colin Rea
Max Muncy
LHB·8 HR / 101 PA·Brl 17.2%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
16.7%
H 71·K 64
Dalton Rushing
LHB·7 HR / 35 PA·Brl 21.7%
16.4%
H 65·K 63
Shohei Ohtani
LHB·5 HR / 120 PA·Brl 22.1%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 2 HR · 3 K · 8 PA
13.6%
H 58·K 67
Teoscar Hernández
RHB·4 HR / 93 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 3 K · 8 PA
13.5%
H 58·K 70
Andy Pages
RHB·5 HR / 102 PA·Brl 7.6%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.9%
H 61·K 66
Kyle Tucker
LHB·3 HR / 111 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 4 K · 6 PA
12.2%
H 58·K 64
Freddie Freeman
LHB·3 HR / 105 PA·Brl 16.0%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
12.0%
H 67·K 52
Hyeseong Kim
LHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 8.0%
11.5%
H 64·K 64
Miguel Rojas
RHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
11.4%
H 65·K 54
Will Smith
RHB·3 HR / 89 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 4-for-7 · .571 · 1 HR · 1 K · 9 PA
11.3%
H 59·K 56
Santiago Espinal
RHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 1 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
10.7%
H 64·K 62
Alex Call
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.6%
H 62·K 52
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.