Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026
Chicago Cubs
at Los Angeles Dodgers
4:10 PM ET · 1:10 PM PTUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angelesopen roof
The Headline
Max Muncy enters this game with a 16.6% model-estimated probability of homering at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor102
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Shota Imanaga
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.17
WHIP0.72
IP29.0
HR/90.90
K/99.9
xwOBA0.250
Barrel%7.1%
Hard-hit%42.9%
Home Starter · LHP
Justin Wrobleski
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA1.88
WHIP0.88
IP24.0
HR/90.00
K/93.4
xwOBA0.311
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%37.2%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Chicago Cubs
Dansby Swanson
RHB·6 HR / 113 PA·Brl 14.1%
14.5%
H 62·K 49
Moisés Ballesteros
LHB·4 HR / 65 PA·Brl 13.6%
13.6%
H 67·K 47
Seiya Suzuki
RHB·4 HR / 66 PA·Brl 8.1%
13.6%
H 71·K 57
Ian Happ
SHB·7 HR / 115 PA·Brl 15.9%
13.4%
H 64·K 59
Carson Kelly
RHB·2 HR / 79 PA·Brl 13.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.8%
H 68·K 51
Michael Busch
LHB·2 HR / 113 PA·Brl 6.8%
11.5%
H 67·K 62
Nico Hoerner
RHB·4 HR / 126 PA·Brl 3.1%
11.2%
H 67·K 47
Matt Shaw
RHB·2 HR / 66 PA·Brl 8.2%
11.1%
H 65·K 57
Miguel Amaya
RHB·2 HR / 55 PA·Brl 3.2%
10.9%
H 60·K 60
Michael Conforto
LHB·0 HR / 32 PA·Brl 7.1%
10.3%
H 65·K 63
Alex Bregman
RHB·3 HR / 126 PA·Brl 7.7%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.2%
H 70·K 52
Pete Crow-Armstrong
LHB·1 HR / 111 PA·Brl 5.8%
9.5%
H 67·K 66
Home Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
Max Muncy
LHB·9 HR / 104 PA·Brl 17.7%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
16.6%
H 69·K 65
Dalton Rushing
LHB·7 HR / 40 PA·Brl 21.7%
16.6%
H 64·K 68
Shohei Ohtani
LHB·5 HR / 125 PA·Brl 22.1%
vs SP: 1-for-10 · .100 · 0 HR · 3 K · 10 PA
13.8%
H 57·K 70
Teoscar Hernández
RHB·4 HR / 97 PA·Brl 12.1%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
13.1%
H 57·K 73
Andy Pages
RHB·5 HR / 107 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
13.1%
H 61·K 61
Kyle Tucker
LHB·3 HR / 116 PA·Brl 6.8%
12.4%
H 56·K 64
Will Smith
RHB·3 HR / 89 PA·Brl 10.8%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
12.2%
H 57·K 60
Miguel Rojas
RHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 57
Hyeseong Kim
LHB·1 HR / 49 PA·Brl 7.1%
11.5%
H 69·K 66
Freddie Freeman
LHB·3 HR / 110 PA·Brl 15.3%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 3 K · 8 PA
11.5%
H 62·K 55
Santiago Espinal
RHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
10.8%
H 62·K 65
Alex Call
RHB·0 HR / 32 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.7%
H 63·K 55
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.