Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
Arizona Diamondbacks
at Chicago Cubs
2:20 PM ET · 11:20 AM PTWrigley Field, Chicagoopen roof
The Headline
Seiya Suzuki enters this game with a 18.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Wrigley Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor103
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Ryne Nelson
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA7.71
WHIP1.52
IP25.2
HR/92.10
K/98.4
xwOBA0.357
Barrel%10.7%
Hard-hit%47.6%
Home Starter · LHP
Shota Imanaga
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.88
WHIP0.87
IP34.1
HR/90.80
K/910.0
xwOBA0.274
Barrel%9.3%
Hard-hit%41.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
Ildemaro Vargas
SHB·6 HR / 100 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
15.0%
H 72·K 48
Nolan Arenado
RHB·5 HR / 109 PA·Brl 7.6%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 8 PA
14.8%
H 63·K 50
Ketel Marte
SHB·5 HR / 127 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
14.1%
H 59·K 51
Corbin Carroll
LHB·4 HR / 121 PA·Brl 13.4%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.2%
H 63·K 64
Adrian Del Castillo
LHB·2 HR / 65 PA·Brl 7.7%
12.3%
H 56·K 63
Alek Thomas
LHB·2 HR / 92 PA·Brl 7.5%
12.1%
H 56·K 56
Tim Tawa
RHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 2.9%
11.6%
H 61·K 57
Jose Fernandez
RHB·3 HR / 90 PA·Brl 6.3%
11.6%
H 69·K 53
Jorge Barrosa
SHB·1 HR / 70 PA·Brl 7.5%
10.9%
H 61·K 62
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB·2 HR / 116 PA·Brl 2.5%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.4%
H 58·K 55
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
10.3%
H 64·K 51
Gabriel Moreno
RHB·0 HR / 50 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.2%
H 63·K 56
Home Lineup
Chicago Cubs
vs Ryne Nelson
Seiya Suzuki
RHB·5 HR / 83 PA·Brl 10.4%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
18.0%
H 71·K 58
Moisés Ballesteros
LHB·5 HR / 83 PA·Brl 11.7%
16.3%
H 61·K 46
Dansby Swanson
RHB·6 HR / 126 PA·Brl 12.3%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 4 K · 8 PA
15.7%
H 63·K 49
Ian Happ
SHB·7 HR / 138 PA·Brl 13.5%
vs SP: 3-for-7 · .429 · 1 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
15.6%
H 58·K 57
Pete Crow-Armstrong
LHB·3 HR / 132 PA·Brl 7.6%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
13.6%
H 65·K 59
Carson Kelly
RHB·2 HR / 92 PA·Brl 11.7%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
13.4%
H 70·K 46
Matt Shaw
RHB·3 HR / 83 PA·Brl 6.6%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
13.1%
H 65·K 49
Michael Busch
LHB·2 HR / 136 PA·Brl 8.2%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
12.8%
H 57·K 57
Nico Hoerner
RHB·4 HR / 147 PA·Brl 2.6%
vs SP: 4-for-10 · .400 · 0 HR · 1 K · 11 PA
12.8%
H 66·K 46
Miguel Amaya
RHB·2 HR / 59 PA·Brl 5.4%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.7%
H 60·K 57
Michael Conforto
LHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 3-for-13 · .231 · 1 HR · 1 K · 14 PA
11.8%
H 65·K 55
Alex Bregman
RHB·3 HR / 147 PA·Brl 7.7%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
11.7%
H 65·K 46
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.